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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。& v1 q4 B c' |: c: E
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截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。) w4 ^" \4 T1 b! w
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此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。 `8 n9 N4 `* M, r# u. f4 S
6 Y! } {! E5 e6 |7 ?+ J. j贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊
0 H* f" Q8 f w+ h6 @12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。
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! \6 _: }* v( P3 B3 K分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。
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他说：
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“销量还会继续增长吗？”) T! P9 q% K5 D8 k+ a- g6 v
b) G) Z' m- r9 G9 p* U: F, o因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？" F9 d! w6 j* P. F5 i4 Y
% S$ W" j8 ^& j; q, x' x/ Q此举为何引发担忧？
( l. A+ t& }* `: ]( ]: s3 Z- |比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。/ Q1 T, F2 e5 n! }& a
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在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。
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因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。/ Y3 T& A1 U2 a* F3 A
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对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。+ T6 X! z G) J }+ W
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然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。
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还会有更多销售吗？
! Q3 z# |4 g4 N1 G3 `3 U# g然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。( K9 t/ w; Z: n$ d1 z$ j
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对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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7 x6 }( U8 e1 ]+ {1 D! z贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。
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8 a" R( @3 }1 h% Y n- P$ `通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。* V5 W) U! j3 y" P: m. \" I# I3 ]
" R! H0 `: d( d( e" q0 ]5 b即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。. ]0 d+ [: }1 e* c3 X2 V
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截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。
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来源：Trading View
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要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。
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在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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+ o/ r; m$ a4 g" I最后想说的话
& E$ M& A3 x6 \# s% f# k零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。+ P! A" a( e; {) a) p
技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。
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