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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。8 L7 h8 |' F, K$ r; y
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。* Q% @) G8 m; t3 p! S, Y" F% S
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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. w% |/ D$ x$ r' c4 w' r6 S) c其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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! N8 ~# M- @' L: T“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。7 h- A: R" _5 _! l
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因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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BTC 图表暗示了什么' q0 D0 s" m, T `2 w; [7 z0 K
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。0 K$ i3 O3 @+ ?5 b! g6 c
0 Y3 F5 g) O( B5 L首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。0 l. l7 e3 P+ V; V% u2 T
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从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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7 s, v0 R& V6 _& G, }( }比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。& ?+ x# r% }0 S- Y
1 |" N2 C+ A9 x- \7 L: y最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。6 q2 p6 T0 s& ]8 P3 O) B
5 ?; B9 `, ~+ z0 M- j/ O最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
" S6 r$ e) l3 Y U
8 {# z- O: b+ T: U% i- S0 o截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。( k) V& ?$ k$ Z. G" X% J
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简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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t+ d" I& s) l1 i0 K9 t# M如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。$ b9 q' k" a" B( |
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