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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资比特币月度报告：5个指标分析BTC呈现看涨趋势（转载）
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木头姐Cathie Wood旗下的方舟投资(Ark Invest)，近期发布比特币7月的分析报告指( {: b0 J5 ]& k5 q! R! Z
出，从比特币支撑及阻力方面来看，币价「呈现看涨」趋势。; Y5 N- t W# o" V( c" y
比特币在短期持有者成本基础(28328美元)和200周均线(26623美元)处仍有支撑，而在已实现价格处，则可能面
$ e0 P2 ~- ^" c9 I- Q3 V临阻力，即33949美元。
( m0 U+ W; e8 x1 ]! M$ B0 y已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被, u8 X7 u7 N( w. k
购买时的「平均成本」。0 {) p" K9 ]2 l' |" B) _
同时比特币已实现波动性(90天)出现自2017年以来未见的低水平，降至36%，基于此低波动性，方舟投资认为比; C# O: M. L. R& j, D$ R
特币价格可能会在未来几个月内朝某个方向大幅波动。9 h1 [! H" ]* ?( A7 |5 ^
在矿工活动方面，则呈现看涨迹象，比特币算力的30日移动平均线跌破了60日移动平均线，表明矿工活动已经减0 F% U, H% w* L; n5 @) e) C
少，这对矿工付出成本的降低有帮助
3 A, G8 v7 t6 m; E比特币网络活跃度方面，可衡量当前持有行为的潜在抛售压力，此一指标也呈现看涨，而7月活跃度降至60%以% D: ~: N% D2 W* c; G7 \* n" J9 R
下，表现出自2020年第4季以来最强劲的长期持有行为。5 E O9 G9 u2 L, Y6 ]9 }, c! C
比特币短期持有者盈亏比方面，同样呈现看涨，盈亏比在本月接近1，表示投机者处于盈亏平衡的水平，在牛市环
( r" P F: d7 {' s境中，这通常与短期修正后的看涨反转相关。# ^. @# y: ^' E: J
最后值得注意的是，方舟提醒，由于货币政策的运作有长达12至18个月的长期且可变的滞后性，联准会先前利率3 N o6 m8 d$ s+ }
升息22倍的全面影响尚未显现，而这趋向于看跌，住房、制造业等对利率敏感的产业也已率先陷入衰退，其余经
5 b" v. ^8 y( J" t( W. o! l济领域可能是下一个。
: P# I3 _1 `$ T$ A5 ?1 e: C* k5 A: v( B0 Y% C$ B
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