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骰宝游戏是在一个笼子里装着三个骰子,翻转摇晃笼子就使骰子滚动。玩的人可以赌从1到6任何一个数,只要一个骰子出现他说的数时,他就得到他赌的钱数。参与者往往这样想:如果这个笼子里只有一个骰子,我赌的数就只能在六次中出现一次。如果有两个骰子,则六次中就会出现两次。有三个骰子时,六次中就会有三次赢,这是对等的。9 s6 \% L4 E3 x! D. \4 C6 v* J4 e
7 F3 o) j4 Q" b N看了你发的这个帖子,一直关注你是高赔率的玩家,这个色子游戏,买一个数字,命中率50%,并且不被豹子杀,不会被抽水,我一直没想明白这个问题,赌场优势在哪里?多谢指教。
4 t- G' ~* ^) A7 x+ o |! V
" O# p8 c9 c" o如上的问题,我在隔壁闲逛的时候有个版主提交的。对于大部分人来讲,尤其是没有接触过排列组合的人来说,看起来完全是个赤裸裸的1/2概率的游戏,3个骰子,6个数。
$ e* X& k. Q2 N i% `# L' }4 B3 M. o9 ]5 ~
事实上,这个骰宝游戏。庄家优势高达7%以上~!!6 _7 e! {7 ]5 m, |! r# e
+ o) h4 `( Z0 x1 {你获胜的几率不是50% 而是 42.129629%: m( _- ?: |. J7 W3 t
; {8 \' v$ H8 T6 P9 E! h0 e% e* S
方案1:0 T G" L0 O* |
5 n. W5 V9 h+ m9 N' S
3个骰子的结果共有6^3 = 216种,其中“不含其中某个数字”的结果共有5^3 = 125种。于是,“至少含1个某种数字”的结果就有216-125 = 90种。$ w" h w9 l6 R1 v) M5 a
8 p+ `- f. ? A1 q/ F& ~) _: W方案2:. i- t9 \- j$ T# d; i# x1 x r- d
0 \, F* j6 _) E: t7 Y还有一个侧面可以想~你输掉赌局的概率是 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 这个结果就显然了。你有超过57%的可能会输掉赌局。3 k0 W! ?# Q f9 M
/ `. t% H7 E7 ~: ?) c数学不能凭经验。 数学是博彩的基石。不存在没有庄家优势的游戏。9 T8 [* u8 @3 K) |) J( T/ [* E- J
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游戏最后一段话觉得是有感觉的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟好运太差了。 |
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