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(一) 基础知识' m+ L1 ] M& d, M5 d# U) m
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欧洲赔率是欧洲博彩公司开出的博彩赔率, 投注的对象并非仅限于足球博彩。在足球博彩范围那,欧洲赔率可以为一场比赛胜平负三种结局开出赔率,也可以为联赛、杯赛开出夺冠赔率,甚至可以为一场比赛的进球队员和比分开出赔率。目前,天朝足球彩票利用欧洲赔率最多的是胜平负三种结果的赔率。彩民可以依据赔率判断出博彩公司的倾向性,并以此为投注提供参考。- } j& z7 `2 s ?
* ]% s( x- _( c. ]2 ` 比赛前,博彩公司会通过分析对阵双方的各种资讯, 诸如出场阵容, 以往交手战绩, 主队主场战绩, 客队客场战绩, 在联赛中的成绩排位, 球队最近的状态斗志, 俱乐部的运作情况等等方面因素之后, 估算出这场赛事胜, 平, 负三种结果的概率。《足彩310》专家、威廉希尔公司德甲首席分析师托尼布斯和法甲首席分析师鲁波特的工作就是为威廉希尔公司提供德甲、法甲比赛的胜平负概率。概率得出以后,博彩公司会通过一个公式来计算出各自应开的赔率。' {% a( E% k4 B& @, {& a2 ]3 F& h
& s* a: I8 H0 i) z0 i8 w c
这个公式是:
' V: t/ |7 Z- A a÷b=c c-c×10%=d& T' Q6 m, d! A9 g/ C
a是计算百份比概率的基数100、b是博彩公司通过分析师得出的百份比概率、c是a÷b得出的结果、d就是最后计算出来的赔率。, w. G5 ~; _0 ^$ _! Y& J9 C4 J
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比如意甲联赛中尤文图斯主场与AC米兰的比赛,博彩公司通过分析得出尤文图斯胜出的概率为40%左右,那么就用这个公式来计算如下:
9 _% R& R. U7 n' t) U & ?3 w. {6 r1 X' E) K# S+ w1 Z
第一步100÷40=2.5
4 x& ^/ K* f+ P' M6 c! ?( } 第二步2.5-2.5×10%=2.25, _- \2 d" Y X. v) z6 z" C
那么, 博彩公司开出尤文图斯胜的赔率会在2.25左右。
) A# R- r( E l* M$ k - [" ?# F! L& j: g
如博采公司通过分析得出打平的概率为31%左右,那么就用这个公式来计算如下:' T5 O; p y, F6 F. L; S
第一步100÷31=3.22* D K1 J+ f8 N( `- P7 u* f0 Q
第二步3.22-3.22×10%=33 ^0 F- I8 q6 E! H: y4 V! O7 f$ r
- i/ u" l4 B8 E$ i' M8 @7 g( M 那么, 博彩公司就会开出平局的赔率会在2.89左右。AC米兰获胜的赔率也可以按照相同的方法计算出同时,博彩公司在开出赔率后,会依据球队动态和投注倾向做出调整。有些比赛的赔率因此会出现比较大的变化,而有些受球队动态和投注倾向影响不大的比赛则不会出现太大变动。4 \* W) }. }7 a `/ P9 u3 Q. S
0 I8 s e, i; ]
仍然是尤文图斯主场对AC米兰这场比赛,威廉希尔公司周四的赔率是2.20--2.88--3.10;周六的赔率是2.20--2.87--3.10。
0 ]) {% L9 U9 R/ m5 y) L6 B . T9 m0 i4 [2 c
当然,如果对赔率熟悉以后,看见2.20--2.88--3.10这样的赔率,也就应该知道主队获胜的概率在四成左右,而平局和客队胜的概率在三成左右。7 V% G. F4 O. K5 ?$ l% v8 h" h0 f
( c0 [# c4 `( }3 s! N 同时,2.20--2.88--3.10这样的赔率也代表着如果赌尤文图斯胜下注1000元, 若主队胜出你就赢得利润1200元, 下注平局利润为1880元, 有一点要注意, 赔率已包含有投注的本金, 所以计算利润的时候要减去本金的数目。. I3 H6 N8 e1 `3 D4 c2 n
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附:欧洲赔率与百份比概率的换算/ U$ p' n- V2 G7 y9 U( ]: a
1.10=81% 1.12=80% 1.14=79% 1.15=78% 1.16=77% 1.17=76% 1.20=74-75% 1.22=73%
$ i, K7 F5 {6 _; A1.25=71-72% 1.28=70% 1.30=69% 1.33=67-68% 1.36=65-66% 1.40=63-64% 1.45=61-62%$ ?, H# L! |# \" P2 |; U7 ?- x
1.50=60% 1.53=59% 1.55=58% 1.57=57% 1.60=56%' L7 y! }5 F& w0 ^$ L F( J+ g- \
1.62=55% 1.65=54% 1.70=53% 1.72=52% 1.75=51% 1.80=50% 1.85=48-49%2 e2 V4 j& P! J6 m: W
1.90=46-47% 2.00=44-45% 2.10=42-43% 2.20=41% 2.25=40% 2.30=39% 2.35=38% 2.40=37% 2.50=36% 2.60=35% 2.65=34% 2.70=33% 2.80=32% 2.90=30-31% 3.00=29% 3.20=28% 3.30=27% 3.40=26% 3.60=25% 3.70=24% 3.90=23% 4.00=22% 4.20=21% 4.50=22% 4.70=19% 5.00=18% 5.30=17% 5.50=16% 6.00=15% 6.50=14% 7.00=13% 7.50=12% 8.00=11% 9.00=10% 10.00=9% 11.00=8% 12.00=7% 15.00=6% 18.00=5% 23.00=4% 30.00=3% |
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