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[lastpost] => 2765079 稳定币:全球金融新秩序与我们的未来 1757701966 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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q" c# B& s6 Z( u2 U: a$ g过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。& W; f4 V3 x* c0 W
! L* u1 h9 g# R& q* SCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;9 T e3 @8 `9 K) Y7 ]
5 w3 l3 I! W8 V微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。# Q2 @5 Z( j9 e0 K( ?& s" m+ x
; C: F. ?% a+ }* Z- X随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。5 C: R2 y' X' u% x; V" S7 c7 R
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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6 L3 V" T( r1 [ETH:2 G+ i% y+ R3 ?
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。: Y* n6 S% y- A7 {% X3 R/ Q$ H) v
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。' r4 E9 h; H# f; @# z
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SOL与XRP:8 \; I0 n* f* l. a s7 s i
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。6 _9 |: D9 n9 G
( ~ F( Z5 U2 |XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。+ @) d |9 Z2 } k
' |- q, f1 X3 c, E- }! Z8 e9 {4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。4 `+ a5 V3 c1 Z+ ^9 \
" i# [, I; h7 Z% A3 b6 F新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。9 ?4 O& P" z: ?* D0 { Q
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市场展望% V& f2 @, t2 D+ j% L H
( E) ~& ~7 I* _# l0 y5 Q4 d! G随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。' z" j5 o+ a5 T; [, @! c
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当前离线
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