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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。+ r5 a* M+ q' j* j/ y
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
5 d$ P- u) |& m4 D& ]) i5 A" y过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
4 H/ m6 O6 d9 A% @' K% {1 ^0 f: f: j( x$ X- H% w) `3 c+ z( }
其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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( S0 ?' p# \6 u6 S“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”8 b+ `$ ~# e0 o9 [: R1 @% R0 M- e
1 p5 F" X0 B' H: m7 Q平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
4 `# E1 I. e" j0 G3 N
9 i' G8 e( p5 R* X7 P3 d% O0 Q因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
, M5 O4 y( u* y4 z5 v7 I2 D4 h: ~% O2 Q- ^4 O& r) Z1 x3 Z
BTC 图表暗示了什么
, ~1 S3 p, J/ `( k" V虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。$ W- J. M8 D& A0 k- A% P
; k Y N: I- z8 Y6 i7 Z2 o首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。7 t" U) z0 F+ |
8 ]; J+ C g, U从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。1 A/ Y1 D# k8 I. I- M
6 Z! U, T9 n) B: R比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。: `/ O; B* S$ o' f/ @8 y0 B4 n8 P
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
( A% j" O, y6 R! [
0 M8 \. y8 u6 N6 y最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
2 @1 D" x9 D0 @, I% F- Y! j, F3 ]' w
最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。5 _0 P2 \3 j6 E) |
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截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。, Q6 D5 j2 L6 p5 f3 c5 {" i
$ U& U7 I, B' }. E; Q) J简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。2 Q- O, `8 E: S
% ?! B6 H2 b* q( a如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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