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[lastpost] => 2752420 稳扎稳打才能取胜?专家:比特币将通过“暴涨”和“盘整”模式突破100万美元(转) 1753695206 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币持有者拒绝出售 110 亿美元的利润——他们的耐心会得到回报吗?(转)
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已实现利润达到 104,000 BTC——远低于标志着市场见顶的 350,000 BTC 门槛。
6 |2 N) X) ~! Y7 |! h; o5 ~# h2 lBTC 可能会在 104,000 美元附近盘整,但如果市场情绪保持不变,目前的趋势有利于回升至 110,000 美元。# P( r* v- a; t! `8 U/ i- n
就在几天前,比特币[BTC]上涨至 112,000 美元的历史新高。
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7 S; S$ o; g8 a ?5 H+ l通常,当价值上涨时,持有者和投资者往往会抛售获利。例如,当 BTC 在 2024 年首次达到 10 万美元时,获利回吐现象激增,获利回吐金额达到 21 亿美元。3 `( l4 Q( F; }8 r+ U' u' I5 |
- T& W9 s/ [6 ^然而这一次,行为发生了变化。
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; q. ?5 W# z' n& q: x1 p6 X即使有数十亿美元的未实现收益,投资者仍坚持持有% y1 i. c& _7 x( }
尽管近期价格上涨,但持币者和投资者的获利回吐并不像前几次周期那样频繁。事实上,无论是鲸鱼用户还是散户,获利回吐的意愿都下降了。
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w4 {6 k: y. R( _根据CryptoQuant分析师,实现利润为 104,000 BTC(约合 110 亿美元)。
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( Q& ?' @. T o# W3 t虽然这看起来似乎是一个相当大的数字,但之前的周期记录的比特币数量要高得多。目前的水平距离35万BTC的临界阈值仍然相当远。. d3 i" s2 a% {; H% E* [/ Q
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事实上,在亮出历史性红旗之前,BTC 还有 246,000 BTC 的已实现利润空间。8 H: v* f) v8 b) o9 l
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自然,这种差距表明投资者正在持有他们的货币而不是趁势抛售。: ?$ D1 v n% E- }8 n8 j7 a7 o! C
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SOPR 下跌证实了 BTC 情绪的转变
; w9 B0 ]3 i) i6 k3 i支持这一论点的是支出产出利润率(SOPR)。4 C/ A" Q8 o6 R; x0 i& Z
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尽管价格达到 112,000 美元,该指标已连续五天下跌。
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- v% H& r5 Z: W9 |4 w! Q$ a即使价格创下历史新高,SOPR 也会下降,这表明持有者虽然获利,但拒绝出售。' Z( A3 k5 R G k; A8 Y: u
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鲸鱼交易者和散户交易者的获利回吐行为同样出现下降。" e$ u* U+ E4 g! Z2 x
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根据 CryptoQuant 的数据,鲸鱼仍在持有,其活动仍处于中立区域内。
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+ s9 J4 R% H9 S7 m; l0 X, Q在上一轮上涨期间,鲸鱼流入交易所的资金超过 10 亿美元。而今天呢?只有 3 亿美元。5 p: m1 i9 V! B& i, k: A4 Y
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这是一个显著的低位,因为BTC正经历着有利的市场行情,并已进入发现阶段。因此,大户持有者仍在持有仓位,等待进一步上涨,然后再加大抛售力度。
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消费量和交易流量强化了这一情况+ F3 L% P O$ l5 D, X. K4 m
虽然价格[飙升]意味着更高的获利回吐活动,但情况已经发生了重大变化。
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7 C- r4 ^. C2 w本轮周期投资者表现有所不同,他们没有抛售以获利了结,这表明信心增强。因此,与上一轮周期相比,本轮价格上涨期间按年龄段划分的总支出减少了11亿美元。3 p' W* b" x& D6 I% f
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与此同时,Exchange Netflow 总体仍为负值。) ~! ?! R4 a* l0 ?/ d
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投资者提取的 BTC 数量大于存入的数量,这表明增持量大于分配量。
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$ j7 v/ S, [! s# W8 ]# H& V比特币的下一步是什么?- x5 f. g) j7 B; S
简而言之,市场参与者依然看涨,并预期价格将进一步上涨。因此,当前的市场状况为BTC带来更多上涨空间。, G: T1 g4 ]# {9 O: C q6 K
8 B l3 ]' _" @+ e如果这种情绪持续下去,BTC 将再次回升至 10 万美元。
3 [4 O# `- J' q/ n
$ M% X4 t3 N6 Z然而,如果关税谈判继续下去,BTC 已跌至 106,000 美元的低点,我们可能会看到另一次盘整,低点为 104,000 美元。+ h/ k6 _ H; J) a0 a* \2 ~
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大户都不卖?牛市稳稳的!+ C5 e, o+ J" n' ]* ^) H5 g* L
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