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和当年的BTC一样，有人用真金白银对ETH进行投票，转POS似乎远远没那么简单。
ETH主网合并正式进入倒计时，“远古巨鲸地址”复苏转入巨额ETH到平台，对应ETH持仓量创历史新高。主网合并这词特别魔性，老狼记得上次大规模讨论主网合并还是FIL，再上次是EOS，无一例外，他们都失败了。
2015年是POS元年，当年BM弄出BTS的时候，很多人都在聊POS才是加密未来，BTC高耗能和老爷车一样的转账速度，都意味着POW过时了，POW指的是通过机器计算维持链上安全性，POS指的是持币挖币，只需要大家一起打开电脑，就能维持链上稳定，听起来有点不靠谱，甚至很搞笑，所以BM在原POS基础上升级成DPOS，就是大家投票出几个超级节点，然后节点负责链上算力稳定，听起来DPOS可是好想法，算是POW和POS的折中方案。但作为DPOS的代表EOS失败之后，人们发现这样几个问题：怎么选超级节点才公平呢？如何确保超级节点能持续维护网络呢？如果超级节点作恶该怎么办？事实上EOS超级节点运营不长时间就迎来熊市，节点发现维护算力赚不到钱，就放弃维护，节点数越来越少，自然算力安全性大减。
算力和去中心化似乎在圈内是玄学，有人觉得平台币种也没算力，更不算去中心化，照样涨很多，也有人觉得没算力的币早晚归零，老狼觉得核心点在于攻击和维护成本与攻击带来的收益，本质上是经济问题，比如说平台链有人会攻击吗？有，但是傻子都知道平台很有钱，平台绝对会尽最大的可能保护网络，甚至会冻结相关地址资产，攻击平台链就显得很不划算。
但是其他的公链就不一样了，越是值钱，安全性越差的链，越容易被攻击，如果攻击之后带来的预期收获，远远大于攻击成本，打一次赚一次，就会遭受更多的打击，直到赚不到为止，当年BTC分叉BCH是最危险的时刻，BTC面临史无前例的粉尘攻击，当时BTC出现很多新增节点，如果BTC没有强大的算力维系被多次双花攻击，今天的BCH就成为真正的BTC，事实上当年BTC分叉币半年后都遭遇过双花。
一旦面临攻击风险，链上资产会提前疯狂跑路，很多人都把公链比作土地，ETH就是最肥沃的土壤，当ETH抛弃POW之后，不仅面临链上风险，还有个问题，如果谁拿的币多，谁说了算，是不是拿住这些人，不仅能拿住钱，还能掌握链上网络，很多人都讨厌BTC，为什么多次打击都没用？因为BTC是算力说了算，抓住一部分人也没用，只要算力稳稳的，只会有更多的开发组，可POS可恰好相反，前两天美国抓住Tornado开发者，无数暗池继续运营，反过来AAVE等DeFi项目可吓坏了，都在冻结相关地址，按照老美的新法案来看，原先老美让V神停止新公链支持，V神会说我说了不算，可要是转POS呢？极端情况下老美让V神双花ETH，是不是也可以呢？如果没有去中心化，DEX不值一提。
忽然老狼想起BM询问中本聪那句话：BTC耗费资源，交易速度慢，如何成为世界货币？是不是可以减少同步账簿次数，加强多并发的技术？中本聪回复道：懂得自然懂，没空理你。在BTC设计之初，去中心化是重中之重，牺牲去中心化和链上安全的项目都陆续成为炮灰，POS显然是去中心化的天敌，如果ETH合并主网后，出现重大安全问题，也未必是什么大新闻，总有人会替代ETH，就像当年BTS替代点点，EOS替代BTS，ETH替代EOS一样，历史总是反复上演，期待新生态的到来，或许会创造出新的奇迹。
老狼随便聊聊，下周有时间再做分析吧，下周见。
来源：金色财经 |
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