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衍生品DEX会是Web3下一次叙事的主角吗？
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去中心化衍生品交易所的叙事正在升温。关注这些在熊市中显示出相对优势的板块，因为它们将在牛市中获得巨大涨幅。这篇文章我对衍生品 DEX 市场的分析，以及需要要关注的一些项目。
首先，衍生品目前占所有加密货币交易量的 66%。这一点很重要，因为尽管 $UNI 等对 DEX 市场来说是个大交易，但他们参与的市场实际上只是总量的一小部分。
这些现货 DEX 正在迅速从其中心化的同行那里获得市场份额。目前，现货 DEX 的交易量占所有交易量的 13%左右，并有稳固的增长轨迹。我预计在未来几年，这种增长将至少会到 25%。
而机会就在这里，衍生品 DEX 市场目前只占市场份额的 2%，这与现货 DEX 在 2019 年底的状态相似。
我的预测是，在未来几年，这些衍生品交易量将遵循与现货 DEX 交易量类似的增长模式。那是什么样子的呢？
如果衍生品 DEX 的增长跟随现货 DEX 的增长，13%的市场份额将是 4.7 万亿美元的年交易量。
根据市场分析，衍生品产品的平均费用为 0.075%。假设目前市场的这个 13%的市场份额，衍生品 DEX 的年收入将是：4.7 万亿美元 * 0.075% = 353 亿美元。而目前衍生品顶级协议的市值为：
SNX=12 亿美元 GMX=4.7 亿美元 DIDX=3.6 亿美元 PERP=9800 万美元 DPX=1.11 亿美元 GNS=8300 万美元 TCR=4600 万美元 LYRA=3000 万美元
总计约 24 亿美元。因此，有潜在的 350 亿美元的年收入有待争夺，而衍生品 DEX 顶级协议的总市值为 24 亿美元，这难道不是一个机会？
虽然这只是基于当前数字看到的前景，但我们可以通过一些基本的预测来预计加密货币的总市值和交易量可以继续保持目前的增长轨迹，并在未来 5 年内增长 10 倍。
再加上 DEX 有可能增长到总市场份额的 25%，我们会得到一个更大的数字。
像 GainsNetwork 这样的协议已经有了股票和外汇，并还会扩展到商品、指数等，这也是 GMX 在做的工作。Tradfi 的这些衍生品市场的年交易量几乎为 600 万亿/年。
对 DEX 来说，即使只捕捉这一交易量的哪怕一小部分，也是一个巨大的增长机会。特别是由于大部分发展中国家/非西方世界无法通过现有的银行系统进入这些市场。另一个需要考虑的因素是，随着全球监管力度的加大，越来越多的用户将被限制在中心化交易所交易衍生品，这种情况已经在 Binance 和许多司法管辖区的其他交易所发生。
这些被排除在中心化交易所之外的用户将需要有地方进行交易，因此，DEX 自然会介入以抓住这一市场机会。
来源：金色财经 |
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