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[lastpost] => 2749335 分析师：美联储 9 月降息的前提是后续报告不会太差 1752587224 比推快讯
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STEPN是旁氏，但当我们讨论旁氏时，需要分清楚是在讨论「庞氏骗局」还是「旁氏模型」。
庞氏骗局是一种金字塔骗局，「骗局」是因为它的经济模型不可持续——许诺高额回报，然后拿着后来者的钱去回报先入局者，当没有足够多后来者加入就会迅速崩盘。
所有的庞氏骗局都是旁氏模型，但旁氏模型并不意味着庞氏骗局，否则世界上所有国家的养老金都是庞氏骗局。
它们的区别在于，项目产生的「外部性价值」能否逐步抵消甚至彻底替代击鼓传花。比如去年我国基本养老保险基金的投资收益率达10.95%。如果没有外部性价值，那么新增越多，泡沫就越大，因为新增意味着更多的兑现压力。
毫无疑问，STEPN的经济模型是旁氏模型，它的高额回报其实是后来者在供养先入局者。至于STEPN是否是庞氏骗局，则取决于它的外部性价值的增长能否及时抵消新增带来的压力。
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