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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报：市场修复整理,与美股逐渐脱钩
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市场观点& \% J5 J7 G3 s- o7 Q& o2 ]: `2 g4 e# k
1、宏观流动性 . E: b! A" n/ m4 D
货币流动性整体紧缩。美联储6月1日开始缩表，符合市场预期。美联储暂时放弃了75基点的加息，并暗示其鹰派立场或在Q4暂停，风险资产因此走强。但拜登与鲍威尔的近期会面，打消了9月马上暂缓加息的市场猜测。似乎中期选举年美国选民关心的通货膨胀的核心问题是能源和食品（俄乌战争，疫情下的供应链等），而不是风险资产。BTC先于美股触底，但反弹落后，可能与传统资本优先进入流动性更好的美股有关。
* @( r8 t9 T; m" m) E; k7 t
: {2 D0 L* g: q: s9 c, {8 J: A4 s2、链上指标
- m5 E1 c7 t: G6 N5 U& U7 ~链上数据显示，BTC盈利地址数创22个月新低，盈利地址数占比为59%，回到了熊市期间的水平（熊市底部为40%左右）。而在2021年11月初，99%的非零地址都能处于盈利状态，此后盈利地址数占比开始下滑。进入5月后下滑开始加速，这意味着目前的市场越来越难获取利润。 $ p6 j0 h$ _0 U" _; I0 X9 f% S
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- P' a/ N, i1 s* ]1 z, H8 N0 c稳定币的总供应量在过去一个月减少300亿美元，这是历史上此类货币的最大降幅。包括USDT、USDC、BUSD、DAI等在内稳定币的供应量在5月份下降了6%，降至1600亿美元。 $ f2 ~0 I: { c+ e+ u h
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3、BTC长期市场指标 8 [2 l# U0 |* j" S c- a
长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据，反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时，是顶部区间；当指标小于2时，是底部区间。当前指标为0.4，可见目前虽未到历史大底，但依然在低位。 % K) w' W* r4 q9 d6 d1 t
: s4 I- g# `2 O5 ~
动量指标RSI用于衡量近期价格变化相对强弱，超过70为超买，低于30为超卖。50日均值近期为35，已开始触底回升。参考2018年最低点29，20年312时40，21年7月38，表明底部逐渐形成。 ( t6 V$ d. j& z
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4、BTC短期市场指标 + H* D8 F. a7 l( [
期货资金费率：资金费率维持在0附近，比较正常。费率0.05-0.1%，多头杠杆较多，是市场短期顶部；费率-0.1-0%，空头杠杆较多，是市场短期底部。本周资金费率终于结束了大规模的看多情绪，刚刚转入到看空。 * o% T; h k- G1 M0 U2 J5 B
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期货多空比：1.4。多空比数据波动较大，参考意义有所削弱。 # \3 f' t9 Z4 [& H8 l( q& `
/ A+ S4 z0 r' _: ?/ }- L8 s- h合约持仓量： |
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