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更专注一级市场、公募、二级市场潜力币推荐，项目孵化的探究、暴涨山寨币，优质币种的挑选和做到更专业，提供海内外一级市场优质项目----区块链阿生
& q5 ]/ b' U* G) h) |) E熊市对投资者来说是一个艰难的时期。随着传统金融市场和加密市场熊市的蔓延，看着你的投资不断贬值是相当难受的，甚至我们可能正在面对的是50%到90%的贬值。美联储主席鲍威尔给出了一切迹象表明，他不会在短期内放松加息。本期我们将分析在熊市中，比特币三个主要价格目标。从最好的情况开始，一直到最坏的情况，但即使本文陈述了达到价格目标的可能性，也不一定表示它肯定会发生。
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首先，我们看一下本轮加密熊市中，比特币的第一个可能的底部价格目标25000美元。这轮熊市最重要的因素是通货膨胀，尤其是通货膨胀的迅速上升。如果今年第二季度和第三季度的通货膨胀数据大幅降低至合理区间，美联储主席鲍威尔不需要进一步加息，我们就可以看到市场肯定会好转。 % Y. e# C" K* `. B" V# j5 R- e
目前30000美元一直是多头和空头之间的斗争区域。因此30000这个级别是一个极其强大的标杆。我们已经看到这个价格在最近两年里被反复争夺，从2021年1月开始一直持续到现在。此外，如果LFG在崩盘期间真的已经卖出了80000个比特币的储备以捍卫UST的锚定汇率，那么25000美元至27000美元也很可能是这个比特币市场周期的底部。 ( x; F8 P" J9 ^4 {
然后，我们来看下一个价格目标。下一个相当重要的价格目标就是比特币的价格接近20000美元的水平。这个价格是上一轮牛市的标志性水平， 2018 年的牛市中比特币的价格达到了2万美元。历史已经证明这个水平是下一轮牛市的起点，那么如果比特币价格再次达到20000 美元的位置，比特币的做多机构和长期持有者将以2万美元的低成本重仓吸纳比特币，从而使购买量大幅增加。因为资金的介入，我们可以认为2万美元在三种可能性中是最有可能的底部。
, L, w' K1 H8 H% v最后，根据美国劳工部上周发布的非农就业岗位的强劲数据来看，美联储主席鲍威尔可能会被要求至少实施一次额外的加息，加上对俄罗斯制裁造成的能源供应短缺可能会使通胀数据进一步上升。我们不得不考虑第三个最可怕的结果，所以从理论上讲：比特币触碰12000美元价格可能性是存在的。 * b5 K% p: Y Q6 c: G+ s8 A
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但如果按照发生概率来进行排序，比特币价格以20000美元的水平找到底部的概率最大。 , G( Z0 I. T" o
因为假设比特币价格走到12000美元的水平，美国股市大概率从现在的水平上将再下跌60%，这时美国股市的融资能力大幅萎缩，大量上市公司被清退，企业倒闭潮出现，失业率飙升，美联储将不得不再次被迫QE、重启降息。 ; i2 z7 ?. n& A4 g3 l" S0 J
然而，随着美国中期选举临近，民主党将不允许类似情况发生在这个时间点或任期内的所有时间点。 % O9 a. m+ @4 Q& B$ G" \
在最坏的情况出现之前，我们一定会看到转机，比如俄乌的冲突突然提前结束，供应链被理清，国际油价暴跌、通胀大幅下降，或者美联储宣布不再加息，那么传统金融市场、加密货币市场和大宗商品市场的底部可能已经出现。 " t$ e9 w: ~+ o( q+ Z j0 J- ^
贝尔社区：群内不定时优质潜力币推荐，给出客观具体的行情分析，预测以供参考，最新的项目背景，项目解析，优质的海外一级项目渠道与公募平台打新，并与多个币圈头部达成战略合作，加入我们一起交流讨论！ 来源：金色财经 |
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