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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，4 ^9 `6 u- p+ T3 Z0 |* o
开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。
1 }1 w0 I0 s$ s( ?比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来- N5 B' g6 Q8 v3 C- H
对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」! H$ b* T+ b% G, _5 |: C9 Y& f
前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克+ O( E2 j/ o8 A& U
指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。
) Y+ y+ ~7 Y. C/ U! |5 [1 ~$ i时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。2 k7 J9 C3 R. z* m
历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将1 i* Z9 t4 Z- p: S$ V* M# A4 a
结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。3 A5 M! @2 O/ N1 h6 g9 G
SEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动
0 D. Z! r7 {0 K% x: c7 d同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、5 y2 _5 c9 R5 `- `6 Z+ v0 ~ I( s
贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。
7 \! P5 m" Y ` y但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推
3 I3 i `3 P8 Y' |& M迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，
5 `3 j0 \4 M, A我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。
9 L' ?6 g0 g% V5 N) P- gK33看好2024年加密货币市场6 f, p$ d1 m# O# y& ~# \
此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风0 Q5 K7 z: t* Q6 }9 L1 c- ]
险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难
. N; s! Y+ U! W: C2 D: M! {提前预测。$ U/ X! F/ I2 d7 J9 o0 l/ w
但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币' Y& U j6 K P3 l7 H: d: q g
现货ETF的走向如何。0 T. k% q4 J5 c8 @ V& H: U
u6 T! `. ^& N# e
3 L Z. Q; ?' N" _; C5 Y1 R |
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