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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资比特币月度报告：5个指标分析BTC呈现看涨趋势（转载）
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木头姐Cathie Wood旗下的方舟投资(Ark Invest)，近期发布比特币7月的分析报告指
# b p; G/ V+ ~5 y/ e) b% `出，从比特币支撑及阻力方面来看，币价「呈现看涨」趋势。+ L, X# l1 Z+ S( V
比特币在短期持有者成本基础(28328美元)和200周均线(26623美元)处仍有支撑，而在已实现价格处，则可能面# G- U, p' g9 a) }
临阻力，即33949美元。
( X: M* L% S; t. X% B已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被" P4 m1 l: U* i# o5 N* u
购买时的「平均成本」。1 F. [) p% r! c C; m. X+ O( j
同时比特币已实现波动性(90天)出现自2017年以来未见的低水平，降至36%，基于此低波动性，方舟投资认为比
- [7 T$ u' v' d# I特币价格可能会在未来几个月内朝某个方向大幅波动。7 A7 E# H; X/ ]4 E( j
在矿工活动方面，则呈现看涨迹象，比特币算力的30日移动平均线跌破了60日移动平均线，表明矿工活动已经减 K2 f4 ^$ R- g) Z3 ]
少，这对矿工付出成本的降低有帮助
' y8 r5 }9 d0 M. e比特币网络活跃度方面，可衡量当前持有行为的潜在抛售压力，此一指标也呈现看涨，而7月活跃度降至60%以$ v& h2 _0 W% n9 P
下，表现出自2020年第4季以来最强劲的长期持有行为。
. n: x5 r! X$ [1 N1 w, e比特币短期持有者盈亏比方面，同样呈现看涨，盈亏比在本月接近1，表示投机者处于盈亏平衡的水平，在牛市环. t7 a: K: r5 N7 c2 l) P, a8 v% h
境中，这通常与短期修正后的看涨反转相关。
& }' M2 J _2 P" s4 v最后值得注意的是，方舟提醒，由于货币政策的运作有长达12至18个月的长期且可变的滞后性，联准会先前利率* W; L6 B5 M% b- G8 t
升息22倍的全面影响尚未显现，而这趋向于看跌，住房、制造业等对利率敏感的产业也已率先陷入衰退，其余经
. L* Y, O7 I' `* [1 q( J, h济领域可能是下一个。
0 [9 M. u) V' P7 x" z- r" e+ U% F5 y
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