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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不0 {/ [) r- [8 k( m1 G/ C, E8 r% F0 z
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。
5 f- X- a6 e: s* g( Q2 n+ e' V7 S( \但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上9 ?) O2 {6 Q5 ^9 ^0 B
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。6 x) `/ Q& R' b# @
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
. ~& j; h4 k& D6 E/ p, ^3 h, z( c近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
! ?8 h9 \9 t7 }0 E1 _/ F. d8 ?: n6 b金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
`3 ?4 b: J# P# ]2 X( B从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
3 f, t% _- I) f) ]4 J" g低点。
* Z3 b1 |( Y3 r9 v全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
$ L; `2 K& F( x. S. Y另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突
g/ |- {! {) ]7 e( C# j3 z显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。8 H3 {# h) J$ [. j( l
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
* z2 X/ m; U% |3 s, h率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。8 i% T9 T$ X8 N0 z8 f
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael A2 i+ t3 ~# \ R$ x8 U
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。. K0 \/ ~* f. n$ z* O& m
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种
" P" ^6 r$ f' K W( C+ s情况不会在短时间内结束。”
6 r0 D( Y' a' v/ I! V纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下5 j3 `7 \; K, g; j) c
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。/ U- m: i, I, L0 b) \$ Z4 |# S2 c, v
比特币ETF即将通过？
0 r$ B/ r; a$ G; m2 T$ |) E另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg
. [, N* L) D( m' B资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上7 d* v4 S4 u( E+ d4 r
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的1 [7 W d$ r5 i8 k* _
问题。
" ~/ ~ \$ O9 V2 x0 @" n似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
& F, H+ O$ h7 I/ R7 _3 v
5 ^- t; t1 O k8 p; _ |
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