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[lastpost] => 2767468 比特币变“无聊”？从过山车到马拉松，它正在换一种方式火热 1758819797 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易/ D g7 D3 `( A' Z
委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自8 C N H! U( i; ]3 Q
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。% R. F+ u/ U% @( V
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，
4 q$ n# T z9 y4 S批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始
, y3 \$ O# X6 J/ ]' m" N后240天做出裁决。3 X) k, G/ Z" w7 v% H
分析师：预料之内会被推迟
& ~9 g" U& U2 F- s. T$ q彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也1 c8 b: x! o7 s$ @! n
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方- z4 ]2 w* @& s+ s/ n- L4 e8 L
在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行& e. ]5 o+ q8 `5 |+ i# w2 ~
长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力
0 D+ q2 Q- H" E( p4 I4 p来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
d! E' g D) k讶。
; O# W! ], y& S" U事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
" b( i, T4 \9 G环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成5 Y# L6 \* V: f0 R
功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。
) S( s# W) d! c6 Y8 t三大利好消息酝酿
- ]: P" p+ x& y市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：
! w* M% x! [* ~/ S5 ]GBTC负溢价率缩窄
% E* N2 s+ p. Z$ A3 N* @7 Y* `/ Z最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持
# b' c: M. }9 K1 C j续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可. t, P, \7 @- M0 D( D
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。$ c5 a$ f2 r* A3 B& H- P
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线" r% ?' L3 \& S1 k$ x1 n9 W/ h, z
值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只
8 G+ N3 w( N& m/ N! |要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。
- O4 F% }% x. g4 ?. c& K多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请
3 K6 D8 E' B. |5 p: v. w \不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后
5 z! P ^+ w V9 N4 \) |2 [- C多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然
+ l! X8 c# x* F+ h- p2 C" M知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。$ ]) i9 c% L, a; _5 A7 U
+ X; W; ?7 F2 A2 v# I1 q |
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