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[虚拟币交流]
Coinbase：一旦比特币现货ETF开始交易恐有两个关键风险（21日转）
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) k& V; \6 }+ v6 z3 b# F% e 随着比特币现货ETF有望在明年一月通过的预期越来越大，推动了BTC价格的不断攀
, I4 p' o, d* n升。然而，在这股乐观情绪的背后，仍然潜藏着该新金融产品正式获批并开始交易后可能面临的风险。
$ z, N% Q) \" ?' U7 z3 X HCoinbase的研究主管David Duong和资深销售交易员Greg Sutton就在19日的Podcast中指出，一旦比特币现货
! C8 a) J! p5 o: X- M; Q: _' sETF开始交易，市场可能会遭遇两个关键风险。
$ g& U5 P" L! f高需求下，发行人的持仓不足风险- Q- y7 V! ]$ P: G2 |& ^
首先是关于获得比特币的问题。当比特币现货ETF发行时，发行人需要从特定的受监管机构购买比特币以满足ETF+ |1 b& r' S! \
的持仓需求；然而，如果机构投资者对该ETF的需求远超预期，可能会导致发行人在满足这些需求时面临困难。
" c2 l8 e: P6 {6 sDavid Duong指出：高需求当然是一个较好的情况，因为它反映出市场对该产品的强烈兴趣…但未来需留意发行* X3 [/ x0 s/ b, d8 G7 s
人的持仓不足风险。
) V- E5 Z+ R; o6 o7 @这个风险主要取决于比特币市场的流动性和受监管机构的购买限制。在高需求的情况下，如果市场流动性不足，
. `' U$ i2 Z/ J6 u或受监管机构的供应有限，这可能导致ETF发行人在获取所需比特币方面遇到困难，造成市场波动性加剧。
& x/ u; ?7 B8 x! ]: p4 Z S$ @基差交易收益减少，恐影响比特币市场流动性: T7 ~ k# N9 x0 ~" }# w7 M
其次，一种流行的机构交易策略—基差交易风险也需要注意，所谓的「基差交易」是利用比特币现货与期货之间+ y, P6 X$ e A' h0 i2 J
的价格差距进行套利。
3 j; v/ T- @& ^; L ^随着更多机构投资者通过现货ETF直接投资比特币，而非选择期货或其他衍生产品，这将增加对比特币现货市场的
) @ Q& ?/ K/ b0 }需求，从而可能导致现货和期货价格之间的差距(即基差)缩窄，使这种交易策略变得不那么有利可图。
) b/ E+ {, k8 ^; {" _这种情况可能导致一些机构投资者减少在比特币市场的交易活动，进而影响市场的需求和流动性。
' O3 T6 } N4 z' @但虽然基差交易的盈利性降低可能会影响部分机构投资者的行为，但比特币市场还有其他多种因素影响着其需求
8 O) a( j; W5 C! q和价格，且不完全依赖于某一种交易策略，因此这一变化只是潜在影响市场的一个因素。
8 l! f* `" H% z) o; e目前离2024年1月10日只剩下不到三周的时间，就让我们持续观察下去。
; [8 H; k w) g6 H: ~7 S) b
$ n; J# q/ q+ K |- o$ R |
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