×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯,数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 27677
[posts] => 444228
[todayposts] => 8
[yesterdayposts] => 557
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2758058 以太坊的涨势看起来比 2020 年更健康,但仍有一个担忧(转) 1755570892 小钱儿
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7232 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
|
|
1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
3 x' [! r3 z, I$ M6 @
# s# {* N& }- B5 C. Q, J8 K7 M9 U过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
7 z g) M& \# ?- L; T
9 z1 q; d0 {1 }, q, Z& h" T* MPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
P1 @- r- ] F% M0 G, ^: e6 M% \5 { i' S9 ~( |6 u
CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
8 V2 G) e4 u+ G' \' _# O. ~# Y6 ^) c2 W
2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期0 F& q5 P* }: M
4 v. k5 ]9 C, ~* I0 a j( ?
当前持仓成本:; v7 @: t7 Z8 J C2 t
, `: }3 z( x1 n3 M0 |8 B! q1 Y机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;# s% e- }" S* p4 f6 S
. k* M: i; U3 o# T9 { f7 t x- v
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;3 c/ F# |* [' X0 N& _
7 K- @, L* J9 c. F4 ? \% LETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。# X N# X" D. U
# R# k6 J7 k/ E1 b9 @. C, Y7 Z; [
比特币价值回归:
4 p7 d8 _2 A3 {# p; X
- y& u: ]9 J6 U4 v2 b市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。; ~2 G8 F; v) l A3 G1 Y
5 Y4 j: o* n- F9 ^1 ~
随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
0 a( i+ o& s9 {$ T
/ G5 N1 ~$ D4 V( j W4 C, J加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。5 s/ `5 P' a5 T A/ ?
3 g! y8 @$ L6 t* d/ K) N3. 市场热点与反弹情况
1 n! W) ]3 a' T+ R0 w$ Z X+ ^; p( z4 I% q
ETH:8 U: R0 x% Y- J, m# J
/ U, B* Y* H. a$ ^ W5 E
虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。7 v7 B( g) \6 Q0 n- e5 V0 K& b4 H% b
& _' n: X2 B, p& T! l/ H机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
' b% C3 x& c+ B' z: E9 M; b' T, _" Q+ y
BTC:
# T( B" j" h2 A, D' d& S8 D9 H5 a. n9 Z
尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。+ ?& B7 [( Y" E0 L P+ ` O9 s
' E* X7 x5 D, E0 ?- c7 v
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
3 O* ]- U5 P1 F6 x' ?; f& n& V
3 N( f* A' C( T" V7 h( BSOL与XRP:/ a) Q9 u" Q* `7 b/ ]
3 @& g) w9 p# Y. |/ }5 V- V0 g9 K
SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
9 g' H! X$ m9 Q+ b. [
- }" q3 Z( a7 b) L7 N5 \2 U' NXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。. R5 k) ]! q" q7 I4 m ~% \
) m: T9 ]! L: C0 f
其他热点项目:
1 X @) v& ~1 C u2 h' g
$ }* S0 ]4 ]* L' m: Q0 |' q8 G涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。1 {+ B" x, ]$ Z
8 h! B8 W. Q3 V4 x* x: ?$ }山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
: n: K) R7 }2 x+ k1 l" t7 s% I* [5 S! W
4. AI赛道与新兴项目' V: X+ x+ m# r% e4 [
: y; C5 C1 S7 Y1 O F" X+ h) \
AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。. x ?6 v# @- n6 Q+ }
1 A: K8 z) U) X) s# B$ i
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。$ ?+ ^" W" v; i: D
8 d% o$ f) [+ _. l4 R, i' A9 L* X/ ?新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
+ ]9 v; W$ s4 K/ K. \3 E+ r
! B7 U5 Q, y1 k# i. O市场展望. Y7 b2 q7 `/ p8 G, |
# s* m0 O' B% {% N# g" D随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
1 g P1 k) P$ O- W- L0 r" C' {3 w3 q; H
# k" G5 u# _% g& I6 Y* D |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13340 小时
本月在线: 38 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19236 小时
本月在线: 40 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 6063 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10235 小时
本月在线: 15 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8973 小时
本月在线: 2 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2871 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3949 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|