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[lastpost] => 2762871 a16z 给 Web3 创业者的真话:下个十年,Web3 创业要盯住这三件事 1757348985 天策-瑶娥
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BTC在过去一周中恢复了适度的恢复,徒步旅行2.81%。7 a" J+ s% \. P G
比特币的杠杆比率下降,因为投机需求降温,而现货需求上升。
n, b& |4 ^" F& \在过去的一周中,比特币[BTC]继续向侧面交易。实际上,截至撰写本文时,比特币在上升0.22%后的交易价格为07.052美元。$ U) c3 R" ^0 w* C
8 v* Y9 R, U" h" A% h: r2 C此外,BTC在每周和每月的图表上分别远足2.81%和2.89%。8 p; |: h/ z# \% x9 ~
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最近的价格泵提出了有关哪些因素驱动它的问题。 Inasmuch,加密分析师Dan提出,BTC的杠杆比率降低,BTC的机构需求和长期积累的较高。
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比特币的杠杆率降低) o- Q( U7 I# d: r2 A- X0 z9 L$ |: ]
根据CryptoQuant自11月21日以来,比特币的杠杆比率已下降。杠杆比率的下降表明,相对于集中式交易所可用的BTC,开放利息(OI)正在下降。
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从历史上看,较低的杠杆比率降低了清算级联的风险,从而使价格动作更有机而不是衍生品驱动。" M" \; }: k# R" D/ u; v
% V+ b f3 N" Q: P& Q& ?同样,相对于价格,OI到市场上限也有所下降。这种下降表明,价格图的收益在很大程度上是由现货需求而不是投机驱动的。
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卖出比率也证明了这一趋势,这意味着随着市场的降温,较长的头寸即将结束。
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, R1 P, ^* f) R& s+ G值得注意的是,至关重要的是,CEX储备还经历了持续下降。在此期间,BTC在购买比特币ETF的同时转移到了Coinbase Prime。当CEX储备下降时,这意味着可以出售的BTC较少。 Coinbase的流量增加表明,大型参与者,尤其是机构正在积累。& v4 j2 l& n9 {( ~
8 A: y7 d6 q: p! [% `" `当所有这些市场行为融合在一起时,这意味着比特币目前正在看到健康的市场。价格不是由杠杆驱动的,使未来的集会更加可持续。1 a/ w: o5 c* d, u- V, X* N# m& p
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这对BTC意味着什么* F' w1 }2 S# ~, [$ Q8 E! J0 x
随着杠杆率较小,机构积极积累的杠杆率较小,这表明市场正在经历强烈的看涨情绪。1 ?( k% \/ x7 ^
$ g# [+ Q6 M7 v1 ^9 `例如,比特币的Coinbase Premium指数在过去一周中一直保持积极。这不仅表明了美国投资者的积极情绪,而且还提高了机构的需求。9 x! H5 s D, [- c9 }' i, `/ u% i4 v
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从历史上看,机构的需求更高,在提高价格上涨方面发挥了关键作用。
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" s4 r9 J5 y! E9 f; `. i此外,比特币的基金市场溢价在过去的一天中飙升了积极。当这变得积极时,这意味着投资者是看好的,渴望的短裤以保持自己的职位。
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& T7 H" j1 }- u4 c这意味着渴望的价格会在短期内上涨。
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4 g S3 d8 ?* a& C6 y: c+ l* W- t4 _2 q最后,市场参与者越来越积累,流出量超过流入。 Exchange Netflow已下降到-2.9k,随着投资者继续积累,反映了更多的交换提款。
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读 比特币的[BTC]价格预测 2025–2026
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" H3 X9 m. M3 p) ]简而言之,随着零售和大型持有人的积累,比特币正在增强看涨的势头。这种市场行为表明,BTC市场已经冷却,将加密货币定位为进一步的收益。
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) i% n& ^$ {& x; Y) Z" y, ?如果这种情绪成立,BTC将在短期回收$ 98,127,然后尝试突破至$ 10万美元。随后,这里的回调将使比特币降至$ 95,800。
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