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[虚拟币交流]
Solana 价格分析：分析师指SOL ETF几乎铁定通过 $200目标还远吗？（转）
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Solana（SOL）再次成为市场焦点，因彭博分析师 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 最新预测，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）在今年底前批准 Solana 现货 ETF 的机率高达 90%。 根据他们于 6 月 21 日发布的研究报告，问题已不再是「是否会获批」，而是「何时获批」。 自从比特币与以太币 ETF 登陆华尔街以来，加密货币 ETF 的发展动能迅速升温。仅是 BlackRock 的 iShares 比特币信託基金，就以史上最快的速度募集超过 700 亿美元的资产管理规模。
' ~& X* |5 P5 Q% u+ a8 d# lSolana ETF 对价格的潜在影响机构投资者若能直接接触 Solana，将可能大幅改变市场格局。根据专注于 Solana 生态的 Upexi 公司首席策略官 Brian Rudick 表示，像 SOL 这样的一线山寨币 ETF，在推出后极可能出现强劲资金流入，情况类似于比特币 ETF 推出后的爆炸性行情。 「现货 ETF 是比特币在 2023 年中 BlackRock 提出申请后价格翻倍的主要原因，」Rudick 表示。若对 Solana 出现类似的需求冲击，亦有可能引发新一波涨势。若历史重演，ETF 驱动的资金流入有望推动 SOL 向 $200 关口迈进，尤其是在市场情绪与宏观经济利好条件共振之下。 分析师们同时指出，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）已批准 SOL 期货产品，也是市场成熟度与监管机构对该资产接受度提升的另一项利多讯号。 : p" a! P8 k1 j- u& J. d& {
( Q9 G& ^9 }8 z. V2 I$ e% d) J价格在技术面仍面临阻力儘管 ETF 前景乐观，Solana 在短期内的技术走势仍偏空。以目前价格 $140.40 来看，SOL 正在试图突破 $144.49 至 $145.49 的关键压力区，该区间与下降趋势线与 50 期 EMA（指数移动平均线）重合，形成较强阻力。 在上一次突破失败后，出现了一根「看跌吞没」（bearish engulfing）的K线，导致 SOL 进入盘整阶段，目前徘徊在 $138.39 支撑位上方。 MACD 指标仍处于空头区域，显示若 SOL 无法重新站上 $145 关口，价格仍有下行风险。一旦 $138.39 支撑失守，价格可能回落至 $135.74，甚至下探至 $132.57 水平。 重点摘要： - 彭博预测 SOL 现货 ETF 获批机率达 95%
- 申请机构包括 Grayscale、Fidelity 和 VanEck
- 支援质押的 ETF 有望提升投资者收益
- SOL 必须突破 $145.49 才能重拾多头动能
- 关键支撑位关注：$138.39、$135.74、$132.57, n$ D0 Z" j6 a8 X1 v+ i
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前景展望：ETF 若获批，将成为Solana 长期增长的重要催化剂；但就短线走势而言，交易者应关注 SOL 是否能确认突破 $145 水平，以确认后续上涨趋势。
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