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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
& [' f3 {4 A# A% e3 v* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c( l! C2 e4 k5 x$ \" e* ~) R7 Y+ [0 V; e
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k2 l/ {2 u8 g: G! R
$ J6 w& [$ r7 \2 ] q9 p: v) I* i7 f7 uG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)' t: ^. Q2 `9 y
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
% b* a g5 ]0 S* g, a3 ?0 E/ I! T: v3 C; X+ x0 |0 U: D/ S3 X
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h$ g' k! ?* Q5 y. g3 k
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
3 D$ ~+ q1 c; E8 @6 l6 u7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s5 x- h% V. c* V0 E1 V" }
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
) H# j) z# ?) r- a; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
3 r. L$ l9 F/ p j- u. k(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
1 G: w* n; e. ^
# }4 G3 C- I p" v(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
H/ m" L. @& O/ p3 P/ w6 ]3 A
+ @ F1 {' l9 ^7 w(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t* X e- O, X0 h) P1 T- b$ U* Z
5 V z0 l" {4 b( B- S2 t$ b
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 ) {- `7 h i: K. x3 \
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _8 H0 M; h9 Q6 [+ }6 ?# G8 |
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 8 Q3 f; Q% O3 ^. d) p! a
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
* X- U- Q4 b* w5 C" U. f9 v0 l5 gS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
+ o8 ^( K7 x! v1 w# Q& K0 [, ~% d- o7 ~9 f0 V
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
9 |- i. H, v' z- q+ F" m* r( z% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s/ {/ Z* n5 H+ s, f
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ) [( b4 b" b% V C) C/ g q0 T
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
; |" |0 N: g( P! K# `S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
7 _; e8 L& e8 ^+ M" A& A& Q8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v, G/ r! q, _) {* g+ w
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
# x. W4 q q: |+ ]8 H0 V9 U, M6 X( u% V- n ]+ K: p p( z: ?7 u
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l5 E8 ]7 ]7 t5 r2 A2 Y* q4 }
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
# ~7 E( K% U5 {( R4 L( L9 [/ M/ f
3 _ I& b/ P$ h1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 0 j" ~5 P4 j$ G/ s+ G" B
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r; T" @; r8 J( _" g. n. i: H3 f
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T; b ?" @5 O& R, ^( `8 |
: j) \7 C N. g, R类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
; e- A; ]( V, v2 Q7 Q" w( q/ W) ]: ?3 R3 [# ^$ ^/ E
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; : {5 J4 g" B# X9 A" F: f5 U6 n6 i
5 Y, s) c7 V; j& N% OS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 s$ t/ n" l. M1 U) ~
; m' V% T, u, P% O
+ U& @, o z6 `- jS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 $ _' e6 S3 f# w: P/ h
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a3 I$ A! Q9 U2 z0 A2 k
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 $ Z# m' J* O/ p- ~2 R3 L
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
+ {) u/ S; m7 V2 N- z4 H3 c(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o1 o7 @& ?& l& M4 K) f+ }1 z
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ! L* X, Y. ^* w
) q( ], k9 L T& t
+ S, I* T1 O) |! l0 N4 a0 V) R( [B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
; Z) w3 J9 X. }4 n& M( v" f) d8 g
* C+ V }* X$ \+ @- WF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 * M! J& a6 k; w' Z& I0 s- C# ?. B1 y
) Z u6 I2 S' L$ I于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
' j/ U4 r7 S `: \2 }9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {" Q: c% F; s0 ~( @
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M, W! z+ e: | N, |; y8 S6 d
+ D$ n) P# X# M! v5 a& m; }$ |, _+ ^
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 3 ` T4 e% x# c# G* E6 e
' b3 b0 t( y4 n" I( x
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]; K! {0 G1 C3 B7 P
( n# S5 a5 e9 D' `2 H4 @当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \- @2 E% ]* y% ~2 Z: x
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i+ { n+ u& H1 N/ u
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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