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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑! z( _0 p; J) r& b
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F% Y. r/ _5 R" e0 x: ?) O% J凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k7 l0 l( z- J, n* l6 _0 |$ l
1 _/ s, H: N4 X# M5 x, d$ @0 @G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)( ~% ^0 J+ }! C
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
, y/ ~ {/ `- p: x$ X1 Z; ^# L
$ C+ \& {' V, b) D& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
9 r7 K7 l5 p5 N+ R5 z既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ & M3 N! E$ ?: i5 y
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s( c* d- f* Y2 Q% J) ]1 I% X1 |+ o
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
" x- ?9 o+ x ]5 c4 b( n: e; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
1 S% e4 k& p- a9 W& P! o(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n0 @: s0 A9 z6 _) L5 p4 j
! T0 Q$ U; ?/ K" e/ h7 }! P
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 ! [0 \/ H |- \$ N. d3 B; R. V1 R6 M% C$ r
! p9 @. t' G, S& f6 _7 R' ]5 b9 Y
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t5 S- a' L+ j/ f5 q/ h: v6 Z
$ @3 J1 ]! ?) s5 R. d: T(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
. G9 K! X4 `% h8 G; h( l! e- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _4 Q5 W& j F# }: l4 \( [* B) C
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 $ r+ e* h7 y7 z- u" X2 M$ n
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' f' y: @2 E7 i. ?$ P6 MS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
/ B1 S& a. k5 U4 C1 U* j9 O- x3 h( G% h6 H* j0 m- y
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 : S# A. q5 p6 M2 V2 f0 l
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s% l- s- h3 ~6 D- z' _
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
& q4 f+ t7 a: ^( M4 V1 P6 F9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j9 [5 D5 }/ l. |) Y8 }4 A* B( @7 l
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
w" s% J g1 \8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
; ~0 m; a, w& M; O6 {1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ; N9 R7 y( j% c, ]
2 E7 q3 l& X9 V( ^' r& J1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l- ?# U6 e4 O1 z; T
. g/ A4 Q7 E. e' f4 M8 a" y, K. B1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q( Z4 v, J6 r+ H7 s: B2 e# ~
4 A. [- t1 M% y Y9 m+ a+ x$ _: _1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
" ]9 l3 s- `( o N+ d% b: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r& y- y8 a6 e1 F: J X: S
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
9 k* U: d' ?1 h1 M& Q0 I
* ^7 [3 F# f* i) A类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
! j" U( [8 l- |4 Y: G; ?8 j6 M& c/ L+ p7 Y" C4 D, `7 C0 ?
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
- @ ^: b- |7 p( ^6 g. J. }
8 X/ D+ ^$ e0 W! i( x% _S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
9 Z- V5 O# S" e9 u- P: x0 D. k7 G5 S; m' V% T, u, P% O
, I- z. B: X, j0 d/ QS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
8 Q" U# V5 [! j# D6 s6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a8 L: s1 S) s# d9 F5 ]9 U' F
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 % k# \3 s4 D! V" B
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~+ c+ c! Z _' Y$ Z3 l
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o: ?9 @' L& [: P" l+ n1 r0 ]
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
1 E- A( X& s3 ^' m好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ' @1 h8 v P% Z8 l1 P
) q( ], k9 L T& t
. N$ X0 `1 V) ^1 r" q8 d4 k0 xB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
/ ]7 L* D6 [3 o* W: ^2 d/ _# C1 Q4 f! i/ T" ~
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
8 l4 U- h+ c! D1 S, O! l t* K( B4 {* x1 C+ i
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?1 j( C& ~. `$ o7 }6 P0 q6 @
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {2 t1 z- p2 Q. `
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M2 T/ X" r' v$ S1 R% F E- C, E
+ D$ n) P# X# M$ M3 j! P3 D% Q8 u5 Y
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
; T9 M7 o# A5 v9 z9 m$ @+ r% K- C1 O2 Y# v' s
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]7 n: L3 c, t; u3 w2 ^( [5 {
9 ]! A% {$ J, g: b7 l: ^
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \& v7 w6 I( K9 K" S9 n8 c; p* x
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
+ O: F7 m6 Q( ]6 A* i5 y8 y通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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