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述评：澳门博彩业规模如何才适当的确值得研究
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[font=Verdana][font=Verdana] [/font]据《澳门日报》报道，受特区ZF博彩监察协调局委托，罗兵咸永道(澳门)有限公司将为该局在澳门博彩业规模等问题上提供技术性研究意见。[/font]
* p( n2 J1 }/ X8 B1 [[font=Verdana] 报道说，今次的“二○○八年持续研究工作”，还包括澳门博彩业的适当规模问题，娱乐城、赌台、角子机要不要设限，如要设限，何为适当水平等，提供技术性意见，供ZF决策时参考。[/font], W+ P3 d' s' Q" g1 j( j
[font=Verdana] 这篇报道实际上传达出了一个信息，澳门博彩业的规模问题，已引起特区ZF有关部门的重视。同时也提出了一个问题，澳门的博彩业究竟需要多大的规模？什么样的规模，才是澳门博彩业又好又快发展所需要的。[/font]3 F3 L" \! i& J3 v$ p' S/ ?$ n
[font=Verdana] 澳门“赌权”开放后，确切地说是二00四年五月“金沙娱乐场”开业，竞争正式展开后，澳门博彩业的规模急剧扩张是一个不争的事实。从下列这组数字的变化，便可看出其规模扩张的急剧。[/font]& h9 z3 F$ u6 A0 F
[font=Verdana] 二00二年二月澳门正式开放“赌权”时，全澳共有娱乐城十一间，赌枱三百三十九张，角子老虎机八百0八部。至二00八年三月，澳门共有大小娱乐城二十九个，赌枱四千三百一十一张，角子老虎(摇彩)机一万三千五百五十二部。短短数年间，澳门娱乐城数字上升了二点六四倍，赌枱数字上升了十二点七一倍，角子老虎机数字上升了十六点七三倍，其升幅之大，实属世界博彩业发展史上罕见。与此同时，陆地面积不足三十平方公里，人口五十余万的澳门，博彩业的收入也跟着水涨船高，并已超越美国博彩名城拉斯维加斯。[/font]+ Z) |: L3 E/ s8 b
[font=Verdana] 澳门近年博彩业得以高速发展的原因，主要有三：一、“赌权”开放，引入外资和竞争机制。使“赌牌”由原来的一个变成三个批给和三个转批给，也就是原本是独家专营变成现在实际上有六家在经营，并且以几近自由竞争的机制进行。二、天朝内地自二00三年开放的港澳个人游，使澳门的客源市场由原来的以香港为主变成了以内地为主，客源的数以倍计增加和看似源源不断的内地客源市场，使业者对前途充满憧憬，因而积极扩张，倾力做多。三、在世界“博彩爆炸”的大背景下，管理者由于担心周边地区和国家“开赌”的日增，澳门竞争力不足而在政策上采取了以鼓励发展做大为主，较少约束的取态。 [/font]
8 Y% F9 |5 d9 T) Q[font=Verdana] 作为澳门最主要的支柱产业，博彩业的高速发展，对于带动特区的经济无疑是有积极正面意义的。但也因此衍生出不少问题，包括博彩业一业过于独大和经济适度多元不足的问题。中小企业严重缺乏人力资源与反对过度输入外劳之间的矛盾等。除了这些属于澳门内部本身的问题外，还有一个重要方面，就是博彩业大规模扩张与内地“禁赌”日趋严峻之间的矛盾。 [/font]) v1 [' j- P; f9 b
[font=Verdana] 今年较早时，澳门《九鼎》杂志发表的一篇题为《博彩全球化与内地的赌金流失》的文章指出，博彩全球化已导致天朝内地大量的赌金流入境外。成为影响天朝国民经济正常发展的障碍。[/font]
# j, j- B& H* q, X! ~6 \7 a[font=Verdana] 文章还援引天朝公安部的统计说，每年内地通过境外Dubo、网络Dubo及地下6HC等各种渠道流失到境外的Dubo资金已超过六千亿元，相当于二00三年全国福利彩票、体育彩票发行总额的十五倍。[/font]* x+ S7 e" B! V! l, V
[font=Verdana] 当然，这些赌金不是全部从澳门流出去的，但毫无疑问，其中也有一部分是从澳门流出去的。[/font]# Y+ X) c1 ^( Z! y: o* B
[font=Verdana] 如所周知的是，澳门的博彩收入，有相当大一部分系来自于以“豪客”为主的贵宾厅市场，而从对社会的影响看，贵宾厅市场的负面作用要比一般的中场和老虎机都大。对客源地带来的负面影响也较大。这是不少学者持有的观点。正因为如此，就更应考虑到对客源地所产生的影响。从这一角度看，至少适当地限制目下急速扩张的贵宾厅市场应是必要的。[/font]5 d$ |, [* p* r) t% X
[font=Verdana] 综上所述可见，澳门博彩业的规模如何才适当，的确是值得研究的。而如何既兼顾内地的承受力，又兼顾保持澳门博彩业在外界“博彩爆炸”挑战下具一定的竞争力，则是需予考虑的原则。只有这两者都兼顾到。方能“常搓常有”。除非澳门的博彩客源日后能转向以外国客源为主。[/font]
9 a; F, W) c. M2 {0 q% g$ m[font=Verdana] 诚如《大公报》的一篇特稿所说的，环顾全世界的博彩业，他们背后都是有一只“ZF”的“有形之手”在制订和执行博彩政策的，从来都不存在“自由放任”的案例。[/font] |
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