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纳斯达克指数（NDX）上周回落，留下了一根看起来很糟糕的蜡烛。然而，在衡量潜在趋势强度时，科技股可能还有更多的发展空间。如果是这样的话，根据新的历史比较，比特币可能会看涨。
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纳斯达克（NDX）在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议之前回吐近期涨幅: y: k+ v* f* M0 E$ M7 B
6 e# V3 ^0 |2 e1 a, M由于交易员在周三 FOMC 会议之前获利了结并重新定位，纳斯达克指数较上周创下的 2023 年高点下跌了 3% 以上。在此次会议上，市场普遍预计美联储将再次加息25个基点。0 q2 g9 D; ^4 ?
/ k, d' p& t L/ O7 t1 v" N2022 年的利率上升环境使股票和加密货币进入熊市。美联储暂停加息的想法帮助市场全年复苏。这么快恢复加息可能会损害近期的市场反弹。+ n% t, G, C' H# o
! }5 `9 j# t! ^: Z3 }8 r然而，目前看涨趋势可能过于强劲，无法阻止美国顶级科技股指数纳斯达克创下历史新高。这是根据 NDX 的每周平均方向指数得出的。
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在下图中，NDX 每周平均方向指数处于 2020 年加密货币牛市之前的水平。值得注意的是，在此期间，科技股的表现远远优于加密货币。. H6 Z1 I8 A8 u8 y: X
7 h6 Y$ V* c! J) S [( e8 m- D) e1 x9 r
还值得注意的是，科技股往往会引领更广泛的市场复苏。从历史上看，这种经济健康复苏的迹象导致比特币和以太坊等加密货币因由此产生的信心而蓬勃发展。# S# c+ N. d# [9 @, m2 [7 I
7 I2 F4 v3 q: c! W在科技股短暂回调后，比特币随后爆发并以极端超额表现抢尽风头。当时和现在最显著的相似之处在于，NDX 和 BTCUSD 表现出与上次相关价格走势出现背离时相同的趋势强度。- v& e( m% m0 h. q
% k6 D: V# [: q. q- R; u* b! K. m在最后一次事件中，比特币与纳斯达克同时回调，但当它恢复看涨趋势时，它又回归了一种截然不同的加密货币。正是抛物线式的 BTC 在短短几个月内从 10,000 美元飙升至 60,000 美元。由于比特币每枚硬币接近 30,000 美元，如果价格走势类似，那么在此基础上再实现 6 倍的表现可能会使顶级加密货币的价格接近每枚硬币 180,000 美元。
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