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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
. v: s, J1 }# w# Q. ~ {9 r! w/ d8 s$ ?自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。/ t0 s! Y$ @4 |$ M( c
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自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
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; R! X4 W2 [7 J1 U2 M ^* {& C. |阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。7 U! [( ~% n5 o$ H$ t# Z2 _( ?
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
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$ R) }8 x5 `! C, |8 a- i9 f观察ETF和鲸鱼活动+ M9 U8 z( [ K3 G
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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' v" O* f- f! L+ | Y L0 |6 k上周降至1300 BTC。1 k# u4 _) k# \0 \" p) x8 X5 E7 I
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。* T! J3 e r6 s6 N# h! j1 F* C6 {1 X
) ^/ d$ s0 ?2 j' N鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。8 r% w7 [, N6 @! z7 w0 n1 B
2 T8 @3 a, [# P- A t( B/ L- U鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
9 X$ W* }! ?# P5 j4 w( W8 k }- Y* o. E8 [. c. {( M
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。/ _& o/ E- \) J* _( p
1 N0 {; ~, R9 W, m3 K尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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' z R3 ]; R# o) [' g比特币会突破其区间吗?" a1 j: I& j+ s$ m- F6 I
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。& M( Y" a+ ]/ F+ z8 K
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。* ^2 f m/ H4 E) `' Q9 r
8 N- S0 A8 C3 @& U因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。! X4 I$ Z7 i; w2 G/ G: C" Y7 K
5 C- d1 B3 v' k q技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。' @% ^& O/ p5 r- h
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。8 v" S; I, V0 k1 @( T: O+ j
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。% Z5 l0 j. \( W1 _, ~
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