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[lastpost] => 2766143 美国真要囤比特币？国会商讨五年买下100万枚，还说不用纳税人掏钱 1758385616 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格分析：在6.9万美元被拒绝后，BTC获得新ATH的机会有多大？（转）
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在最近的牛市中，比特币的价格尚未达到历史新高，因为卖家正在捍卫他们的最后一道防线。
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1 b9 \6 z: K9 a* J1 ~# E技术分析
" d8 G; ~/ S1 ~+ {7 `; f, BBy埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）1 l' x, T! X/ K1 t( }- |" \) R8 q; U
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每日图表8 Z! r! O' D2 U2 }
在日线图上，该资产最近反弹至6.4万美元水平和200天移动平均线之上，位于同一区域附近。这一上升趋势大大提高了比特币很快创下历史新高的可能性。
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. G! k+ x' x! b3 s4 |7 F: F/ [3 F然而，卖家很好地捍卫了6.9万美元的阻力位，因为价格正在下跌。如果出现大幅回调，可以重新测试200天移动平均线。
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3 V( b2 @9 |3 J t6 U% }4小时图表* p/ H8 T* ?$ v/ Y. j3 o
基于价格走势和动量分析，4小时图显示了明显的看跌信号。市场最近在6.9万美元的关键阻力区形成了一个上升的楔形。然而，RSI与最近的价格高点显示出明显的看跌背离。% ]2 Q! \8 b; K. @, X8 u
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这导致了模式的崩溃，这是一个典型的看跌反转信号。RSI也显示低于50%的值，这表明动量在4小时内看跌。然而，由于整体市场结构仍然看涨，这一举措很可能只是暂时的调整。
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情绪分析" T: H: O7 q* f; q; [
By埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）
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5 G& \$ n. r- J$ M& W比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（叠加）+ F0 u' d; q, n% ^3 A
在比特币最近的价格上涨中，投资者越来越乐观地认为，不久将出现新的历史新高和长期反弹。然而，这种乐观情绪有可能导致市场下跌。
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此图表显示了比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（堆叠），它衡量了未平仓期权头寸的数量，包括看涨期权和看跌期权。显然，与牛市早期和接近市场底部的水平相比，期权未平仓合约（OI）总额显著下降，在牛市早期和市场底部，看涨期权和看跌期权都堆积得更重。
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OI的下降表明，投资者对比特币价格走势的不确定性减少了，导致他们采取了更具方向性的头寸，减少了通过期权进行对冲的需要。与此同时，对芝加哥商品交易所期货的开放兴趣日益增加，表明投资者对这一趋势越来越有信心，愿意采取更多杠杆头寸并承担更大的风险。不用说，杠杆是一把双刃剑。8 q* k! |/ ^7 Q/ H) o7 L2 W0 u
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