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[lastpost] => 2767788 比特币在11万美元左右窄幅波动 分析称即便美联储降息比特币仍将低迷 1758521916 whywhy
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28日，Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC分析师Ben Carlson撰写了一篇题为《Is It Too Late to Buy Bitcoin？》的文章，认为很多人现在开始跃跃欲试比特币投资，往往是因为价格已经大幅上涨，受FOMO情绪所左右，形成了盲目追涨的心理。
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他建议，投资者在考虑加密货币时，应该问自己为什么现在要进入市场，保持冷静，理性判断，不要仅仅因为价格已经上涨而盲目跟风。
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0 T( `% h% m; D- \4 |1 K4 m“我可以计算天体的运动，但无法计算人类的疯狂”. K. A! O$ t- g" p4 V, R* K M# S
& m, x" z6 Y$ m# R' ]9 T& `近日比特币暴涨，投资者受FOMO情绪驱动，开始怀疑自己是否错过了这一波上涨行情。# c( v' [, g( L: X$ c! g
9 m5 e$ j' B7 u# X5 s7 q对此，Carlson表示，盲目跟风带来的投资决策可能会带来巨大的风险，正如历史上许多著名投资者的遭遇所警示的那样——即使是像艾萨克·牛顿这样的一代科学巨匠，也未能逃脱投资中的情绪陷阱。
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( G+ P/ a5 z( a! B, y/ r! g1712年，英国南海公司的股票在短时间内暴涨。数学家、物理学家和天文学家牛顿在第一次投资南海公司股票时小赚了一笔，尝到了甜头后，他再次投入了更多的资金，直到泡沫破裂。7 R5 H! t' F0 l" \5 `9 @ I
* [8 p2 l7 y4 Y" Y/ ]9 w最终，他在南海泡沫中损失了10000至20000英镑，约合今天的2000万英镑。牛顿当时深感悔恨，并曾言：* m8 [) |6 P4 F
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> “我可以计算天体的运动，但无法计算人类的疯狂。”5 d: {7 U4 O" B. V; T+ ^
# R9 L( p! j: w& h( ^牛顿的南海公司投资不仅仅是一个金融泡沫的故事，也反映了人类在面对市场情绪时的脆弱性。在牛顿之后的几个世纪里，类似的情形屡见不鲜，尤其是在股市、房地产和其他高风险投资领域。每一次的市场暴涨，背后往往都隐藏着不理性的泡沫。' Y- ^7 ]3 M' I' E3 w( O/ m
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保持冷静、理性判断，避免FOMO心理主导决策7 I. s. m$ l# j: P# B$ d1 }5 N
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Carlson指出，比特币的价格上涨已经吸引了大量投资者的关注，但投资者需要理性思考，审视自己进入市场的动机。很多人现在才对比特币产生兴趣，往往是因为价格已经大幅上涨，形成了盲目追涨的心理。6 X( l, e" ` T! G# p
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这种行为，往往会让投资者陷入“追涨杀跌”的恶性循环。比特币的价格可能继续上涨，但也可能因为市场调整而暴跌。1 P* P6 O) A2 W+ o
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他认为，投资比特币这样的高风险资产，虽然可能带来丰厚的回报，但同样也充满了不确定性。与其依赖FOMO驱动的冲动决策，不如采取理性、稳健的策略，不被市场的短期波动所左右。毕竟，历史上，许多伟大的投资者正是因为过度依赖情绪和市场的短期走势，才导致了无法承受的损失。
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对于现在考虑投资比特币的投资者，Carlson提出警告：如果你现在才决定进入市场，可能只是因为价格的暴涨和FOMO心理所致。这种情绪驱动的投资，往往难以持续。
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