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[lastpost] => 2764827 a16z致创业者:与其拯救低留存率,不如直接转型(转) 1757607953 不傻不成气候
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势) `* m4 r+ T2 ~/ n2 R
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。 Q6 I$ k. P# B Y. p& }9 b
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。( H3 U' e4 L+ b: x+ X1 V: h4 E
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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5 p% O' X. e& y5 d0 D/ D机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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& h5 e- U5 c, [7 A! W比特币价值回归:% \6 p0 R; v a5 e4 A0 B
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。( \, Q' w i W. \7 y& d# p- g% [
3 y, @: W' F" q6 N1 c8 }$ R$ q7 W随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。8 x% R8 q/ Y- d' q i
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。0 o- R* Q) ? Z' M
5 Q0 H, e6 o; b& y3. 市场热点与反弹情况# |- s \. D& @+ j2 Z
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2 m" }4 ]6 V u6 G9 `% O" \2 I虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。/ h+ D2 r6 S; E9 P1 o4 n8 v
% L, @7 M5 N, w9 g4 K8 O机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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& l9 t$ q3 X* r% R如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:* h! K$ e7 T# z
# n3 g8 p* X; I/ ^' D3 h6 c' q P( kSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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8 J5 q7 w2 Z% s" K% k9 b# h3 UXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。/ o& a) \2 p7 G5 o. i" u" g
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其他热点项目:
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2 W7 s- F, v: Q' |; _9 ^8 c, `涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。5 b+ ?5 S" r8 u
* k" E( G j. U. E. h9 n/ A山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目) N. z, @# H" C
# S1 D# o2 c7 z/ \ M4 QAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。8 C" J7 Q' I8 f: K. m+ K6 ~/ G
5 b1 n3 e% Z% Q: w d2 W, b8 E0 n m4 V蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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6 ~# w$ B+ R/ C2 k新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望2 x0 r, o, ]% g0 p5 w
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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