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[lastpost] => 2760270 比特币 120 亿美元期权到期会影响 9 月份的价格走势吗？（转） 1756246449 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币险守11万美元 2.4 万枚抛售引发连锁清算-转
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比特币（BTC）价格在 26 日未能自周末的急跌中恢复，跌至约 109,700 美元，随后反弹回11万美元以上水平。 是次下行，触及 7 周以来新低的 109,700 美元附近。过去 24 小时跌幅约 2.8%，市场再度弥漫谨慎情绪。 & }- q7 I6 s/ J5 }. g
5 z [) ?- `' r4 G1 M' t$ W2 R1 H2.4 万枚 BTC 抛售引发连锁清算下跌的导火索是 24 日一位大户一次性抛售 24,000 BTC。比特币价格在数小时内从 114,700 美元急跌至 110,600 美元，触发算法交易连锁反应，导致市场陷入动荡。 这一过程中，过度杠杆头寸被全面击穿，引发约 5.5 亿美元的强制平仓，尤其是多头仓位清算高达 6.27 亿美元，暴露出市场杠杆结构过重的问题。 投资者卖压加剧链上资金流显示，绝大多数投资者群体开始转向卖出。 - 中型持仓（10–100 BTC）：在价格突破 118,000 美元时大举获利了结。
- 小型持仓（1–10 BTC）：在价格跌破 107,000 美元时重启买入。
- 超大户（≥1000 BTC）：仍在持续卖出，供需未见改善。" l) i8 v! z7 s0 Z
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同时，短期持有者（1–3 个月）的平均持仓成本为 111,900 美元，价格跌破这一水平后，割肉抛售加剧。中长期持有者（3–12 个月）成本约在 9 万美元，相对稳定，但短期资金的集中使行情更加脆弱。
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& v) } K- T" F2 j季节性逆风与市场结构变化除了技术面，季节性和结构性因素也加大了市场压力。 季节性因素：比特币历来在 8 月末到 9 月偏弱，平均下跌 3–4%。今年又逢亚洲传统“鬼月”（8/23–9/21），投资者风险偏好更低。历史上甚至曾在同期间出现超过 30% 的暴跌。 结构性变化：比特币 ETF 批准后，机构资金提前入场，打破了传统“减半后上涨”的四年周期规律。例如，Strategy 公司在 8 月第四周买入 3,081 BTC（约 3.57 亿美元），但价格反应有限，显示机构资金或已接近饱和。 此外，一些大户将资金从比特币转向以太坊，进一步削弱比特币的基础需求。BTC/EUR 未能创新高，也反映出非美元市场的承压。
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