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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。2 J T8 u# `: J3 p8 v
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截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。
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: W. {( u5 c! K+ L# j此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。8 u6 B) j; o# e$ q+ n
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贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊
! [2 M" L$ V9 M12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。0 `0 s+ Z7 Q5 t0 Q
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分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。
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他说：! ^, t, G2 o% R0 a _6 n, R8 {* }) B
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“销量还会继续增长吗？”$ j& c$ h( s N% A5 w3 j
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因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？
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此举为何引发担忧？, Z, Q8 s' ]- C1 C- v# u0 U" p+ S0 W) h
比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。
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# n' c+ F2 P# a1 ?1 u) p在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。6 x4 l+ P7 w# D5 X4 f. O1 t
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由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。
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因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。
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对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。
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然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。+ W/ U% r7 T6 f p
. x" m$ S" x3 v9 F% K, l7 C1 }, E# U还会有更多销售吗？' f. W/ l7 B) e- ^7 W7 H
然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
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对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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: |5 @& w- s4 L贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。3 h: v- g: I- a
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通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。
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即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。
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8 Y& k: y% u6 v# g. |截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。; P6 x* m0 _! w+ I
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来源：Trading View
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要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。
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5 g2 Q1 a2 t4 W1 j( s在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。$ v% X5 H/ i+ p9 T
, Z$ H; {0 G+ Z }3 Y最后想说的话 Y# J7 v7 Z* Y" H. S$ d
零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。5 t/ D6 P' u3 C5 Y# X
技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。
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