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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]% G) j; O+ W# R$ E4 X
% n" ^( m6 w/ U& K7 g1 p# {大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
" ]6 Q. K! T. v* E有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。
; Q- M$ n* l: c0 h. v q结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
6 F. i( `4 k7 `( n% z% S' Q4 d) `8 L9 q0 e# ^( j2 `# {
[1]) Q% y! b) @2 u x# ]+ J
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
% r* a6 S# o+ b$ z; k威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。$ E* g. R" O6 L1 T \/ M% I6 H/ D
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。. ?/ N4 B& _+ B' E) ?. _. N
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。4 R0 y! Q ~6 l' R
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。! G1 f9 y9 l# b8 \( C; s& a/ C
主胜的开法:3 M5 k+ G# s5 ?" C6 M# |
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。' {# \ Q& a9 _+ Y. S5 Z, l
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?4 s0 n5 T v2 Q1 f- ^1 }
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。- H3 P) i5 r% |
主负:
$ K; x( L( D. p威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。& J! X7 k5 ^( U* x) }
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
$ w% G5 o u7 \: R/ b2 k7 I平局:, h/ t) |# b1 s/ t
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。4 z4 [: _& d* ?; z- W" f, C% K+ S
: |0 K1 Q }1 T8 R# Q1 s
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马# M* D! h0 Q+ e! F: ^2 E
威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
2 U9 s" n$ U- w- ?维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。
( k3 u* d. a3 n% j9 P5 z思维与上场一样。6 S* i0 H; ^& K2 ]3 Y4 d& K
7 r- a4 U, A" C% i- d- x4 U" k# H[3]
: Z* y( a0 V: H- a: f6 V/ l4 p% M; g西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
4 Q$ u; q5 z7 ]- l, s' F3 {威廉:1.28/4.5/8。% T; e* ^! L2 M g7 w4 c
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。" x3 z. w( _6 D) {' u2 D. x( D. i
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
. V1 G) ^( G6 ~" j: S# v1 n广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。: o4 E( D* o2 _2 Q
主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
J& B, i# _$ r现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
7 l4 K. Y7 p; e* V' }/ N主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。; y- N0 w8 {8 i2 U
0 f, O! h- v6 Q5 R. M那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
[) T; F% [0 z4 {0 z结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
8 z: w" v2 d) N% q0 w同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。6 D$ S1 t1 v# r2 c, ?
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。' m( }7 u7 e. k9 b
d, s! s* o! r2 H6 f5 v( h很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。6 g: U9 }* X1 g K4 F
) ]8 {5 o+ J" T L
例如:
9 ?- W* T$ z6 Q) S7 ~. K5 G$ f西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
! I# I3 B' G1 l双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。. A. p, _/ `4 J0 {9 M; n3 E, u2 f
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。# k2 D: a# w9 i4 O1 f- m5 H
' L1 r( @$ T- C7 f欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
+ M- P* j% T: z; l3 o$ {当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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