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[lastpost] => 2767465 等了快三年，FTX 又要发钱了！这次 16 亿美元要分给谁？ 1758706909 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不% U) }; A/ Z- D4 b2 \, n
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。4 Y% C( C1 b, x! c
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上
- a0 r0 U2 `& B0 d+ H0 D30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。6 u! d2 Q4 r% x5 ~; o
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？1 i: ~& f1 [) y) C
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
5 s/ a# m6 s/ Z# ]金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
8 i/ `" g: Q5 K! T1 K( c4 }从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的% Y& y$ u9 b# q9 R; G' @/ _
低点。
. k0 x9 d3 ?) V2 k, ^全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
8 i8 j; n% t( |$ l! c另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突3 B: X$ e P3 S1 J" }
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。# Y- X x" R' K1 X2 B& T/ d
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机- c2 J0 Y o( r- c5 j# X: z! U$ i
率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。4 C; [; S9 D! Y& j
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael
8 O; `( C& G; ~/ L9 iBostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
' a/ n: d; [8 K9 Q3 i0 {& Q“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种" s8 \4 z# t6 O; c
情况不会在短时间内结束。”3 z# r7 B) l D% S' Z) j# Z
纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下* H L1 X2 \' V) D! ?8 o
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。' D/ L6 c0 ~' y& ?! S5 r$ [( s' q
比特币ETF即将通过？
+ c" a/ x. u- R9 X3 l另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg
% A7 l# K* @: U4 [3 K资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上3 G0 K y+ s) y6 f l. a/ h7 I
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
- q/ l* F: t6 g& H6 f问题。. A' ^! h* `" L+ k3 d: W. e
似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
/ N l3 i) t$ Z! n$ f* S/ q
# a6 B2 f1 D/ W V' I- w. g: o |
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