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[lastpost] => 2769000 比特币 ETF 复苏，流入 2.41 亿美元，以太坊 ETF 交易额创本周新低（转） 1758804483 人生如赌
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他们将其称为加密货币市场的尾部风险：在罕见事件的背景下，资产的当前价格偏离三个标准差的风险。 交易员们担心比特币(BTC)会发生这样的事件，尽管比特币自8月20日止一周下跌逾10%以来一直徘徊在2.6万美元左右。根据Amberdata的数据，比特币的7天历史或实际年化波动率已从上周早些时候的近60%降至26%。 加密资产管理公司 Blofin 的波动率交易员 Griffin Ardern 表示：“比特币的蝴蝶指数已升至年度高点。这表明投资者和做市商正在定价尾部风险。” 蝴蝶指数通过比较加密货币交易所Deribit的比特币波动指数(DVOL)和现价(ATM)波动率，来衡量价外(OTM)看涨期权和看跌期权的相对丰富程度。
5 x. u! U, K: I3 C0 N: d2 [, L 指数升高表明对 OTM 期权或看涨期权的需求相对较强，其行使价高于 BTC 当前价格，而看跌期权的行使价低于 BTC 现行市场价格。 换句话说，它表明交易者对尾部风险的恐惧或对不确定性的敏感度。 看涨期权是一种衍生品合约，赋予买方稍后以预设价格购买标的资产的权利。 看跌期权赋予出售权。 看涨期权买家隐性看涨市场，而看跌期权买家则看跌市场。 当交易者预计价格走势高于平均水平时，对价外看涨期权和看跌期权的需求就会增加。 “观察 BTC 蝴蝶指数，我们可以看到翼形接近 90% 的百分位数（红色水平线）。因此，虽然直接波动性 [指标] 似乎对现货价格盘整充满信心，但交易者仍在为尾部付出代价 ”，Amberdata 衍生品总监格雷格·马加迪尼 (Greg Magadini) 在每周通讯中表示。 蝴蝶指数仍然处于高位，表明人们对比特币价格大幅波动的担忧挥之不去。 （Amberdata） 该指数表示为加密货币交易所 Deribit 的比特币波动率指数 (DVOL) 与平价波动率 (ATM) 之间的比率或价差。 Deribit 的 DVOL 考虑所有期权的定价，而 ATM 工具则基于平价期权的定价。 尾部风险的定价与挥之不去的宏观经济不确定性是一致的。 周五，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，央行仍致力于实现并维持2%的通胀目标，同时暗示货币政策将在比预期更长的时间内保持紧缩。 美联储持续的紧缩倾向已将债券收益率提升至 2007 年以来的最高水平。债券收益率上升往往会令包括加密货币在内的风险资产承压。 马加迪尼指出：“杰罗姆·鲍威尔的一个重要见解是，‘让通胀率回到 2% 可能需要低于趋势的增长’，这意味着他并不担心经济和就业市场遭到一些打击。” 阿德恩表示，在周五美国非农就业报告公布之前，尾部风险可能仍将较高。 据《华尔街日报》报道，数据可能显示美国经济继 6 月份新增 209,000 个就业岗位后，上个月新增 200,000 个就业岗位，导致失业率稳定在 3.6%。
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