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[lastpost] => 2770519 比特币 2026 年的价格催化剂：宏观顺风和机构支持将推动下一轮牛市（转） 1759343352 jackcool1011
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美国证券交易委员会（SEC）或将于2024年1月初批准首个: g* X0 P# s/ {: F; K. B
0 o4 P: @( G) P. Q* C- l6 |8 o「现货」比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），这一消息让华尔街大型
2 g3 o4 z% _" v& D# Z& ^) I( d- o5 y' [* a
资金管理公司备感振奋。据悉，多家知情公司透露，SEC官员最近
- m7 _5 f9 f$ |' D
: ]0 P0 V4 f6 d# k; ~0 l2 L的指导意见显示，批准的绿灯或将在2024年1月10日亮相。这也* ~1 \$ |* R/ Q
5 n3 }' |* C. ? P
是Cathie Wood的方舟投资管理公司（Ark Investment Management） t+ p2 c S6 V5 z+ K& M1 _
$ a3 l2 |8 ]' q; R( B# s c与21Shares合作的申请的最后期限。贝莱德（BlackRock）和富达
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（Fidelity）等十几家公司已经提出现货比特币ETF的申请，预计SEC
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& |. ?4 S( U. s5 Q可能同时批准多项申请。" r# s% ?2 y9 y0 u' _7 a
i( [+ u7 B- j- t1 ^( r$ u- D9 t# M9 w9 _
如果如期获得批准，这将是美国加密货币迈向主流化的重要一步。然4 `+ g0 p4 Q& c: A' r6 B
& {+ M2 h! C# k; N- R
而，SEC主席加里-根斯勒（Gary Gensler）曾对此持保留态度，直到
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+ I) M, Q+ ]0 S$ K5 X9 r$ r近期的一次法院裁决削弱了他在加密货币监管方面的权力。比特币现/ L$ y6 W9 X( T
2 E; l7 p% ^% R. B3 p3 N; p2 l货ETF将为散户投资者提供更多接触全球最大加密货币的机会，成本7 z$ i# k+ M- E0 ?! q, f
& {. Y6 g) e% z( ^3 {! b也低于已获批准的在期货市场上定价的比特币ETF。然而，SEC对ETF
+ {) Q# D% j) C: T& l( ~: y+ T$ S( N8 K4 `$ f J/ S7 [
的结构提出了独特的要求，坚持要求申请人使用现金购买ETF股票，而
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E( q _+ l1 C9 d R) @. h不允许使用比特币等相关资产。. R. X; G7 Z+ p% f3 ] {
* S7 Z- g1 L1 MSEC的这一决定引发了一些争议，因为传统ETF允许所谓的「实物」交# a3 d* A7 S- H* W, L
. w F0 `9 p8 _9 n/ {# M/ i易，而SEC坚持使用「现金创造」途径，这使得发行商在每笔交易中必
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, y& e& K$ w4 T R Z( b) e须将比特币兑换成现金，而不是在交易所直接进行比特币交易。现货比# e! {- N1 k; v7 t2 S; N/ K8 ~
( F; A. x# ^: k8 @0 t& y4 _- Z
特币ETF的申请者之一，灰度公司（Grayscale）表示，他们正犹豫是否- N6 _' S' _4 P4 C7 o1 h. X/ ~
3 I9 g! m( J- O7 o: _1 ~: A
放弃实物申购，因为SEC的这一要求可能让投资者失去重要的税收优惠。+ [9 a/ K3 B* N( e
1 z: V; x e! |1 v
美国证券交易委员会的这一立场可能与国会围绕数字资产的ZZ紧张有% P" A H0 \5 h$ R! v5 _- t2 A5 Y
1 g# O% P% o+ {% J' h$ ?关。SEC担心比特币被用于洗钱、操纵市场等非法目的，导致了对于ETF6 M6 Q# z8 y; H! \2 W9 J% R
0 Q5 U. Z' Z# Y7 m
结构的特殊要求。尽管行业官员认为SEC可能会拒绝所有申请，但裁定中! q0 g) Y: F5 x) w7 G5 U
& M# B2 B; g+ c2 g4 D% K$ A; U" l的先例显示，如果SEC拒绝基金经理的申请，他们将有足够的理由进行申诉。' _$ C, ~) Y& L5 n ~8 i
# y* y* N0 v4 N1 v" A" E
全球最大的基金管理公司贝莱德已将获得SEC批准其比特币ETF作为公司的
) e4 k8 i* ~4 P2 O) E% Q2 i+ J+ o; M
重要优先事项，这进一步显示了机构对加密货币市场的浓厚兴趣。贝莱德% v+ A( o2 n6 _- M
5 s+ P9 {0 H' @9 F/ F( s的创始人兼首席执行官拉里-芬克（Larry Fink）将比特币视为「国际资产」
# ], D# I, q2 I* m' x
8 C, Z: G5 j+ p和「价值储存」，其地位可与黄金相媲美。贝莱德已与SEC进行多次会议，
4 o; c8 K: [: x+ C) T$ E$ C! n* w" f
展示出他们对于比特币ETF的积极态度。 b6 n% o& I0 I: o" c
$ N: N3 _$ x: G4 Q总体而言，SEC在新的一年里将继续加倍努力，争取在2024年初将现货比
6 [- I0 z- Y# n9 K' B# M( V% g# q' B. k2 i! u
特币ETF推向市场。虽然拒绝的可能性存在，但裁定的先例使得这一可能性
% H) J' e" D1 o/ O* \, O
" x' o) }( r- S4 M1 f5 u6 \9 d较低。投资者和行业都在密切关注着这一决定，因为它将对整个加密货币市9 o- o0 w/ j/ |% Z1 _
( m( ^- q" d2 _# d$ m; M
场产生深远影响。& X1 D3 O* ~0 l& z* ]
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