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[lastpost] => 2750291 山寨币季来临:以太坊表现优于比特币 24%(转) 1752847244 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
4 f* D& J1 `% @尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
4 |8 s5 O& k' v6 M+ I) V+ c过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。/ v# _& ^& L9 A1 E; U0 S: s& d
7 c( l3 ]' Z, z+ _! e其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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6 p: J0 ]+ U+ J6 p8 F) @# iAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:. O/ Q( A# q+ [" p7 b }2 u$ X/ l
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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% Z/ X8 Q" o0 t: Q E$ E平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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& {0 A9 ^8 q2 x0 n0 R4 H因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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9 d: u; W9 S, Y' {+ N1 SBTC 图表暗示了什么8 X: ]( u) Y( B) V: K+ a& p
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。1 S9 P7 l# }2 v+ Z- F
% f6 Z8 u: { u5 F从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
/ z3 ] E: m0 E. c$ B* x
# |' k4 }2 U0 R! w比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。1 L8 ^% q2 }$ b2 q- y
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当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。: {4 F+ o) k4 X3 V1 w3 |: W6 U
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最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
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1 }7 R) q2 ^0 n; L) Z% s( z6 F最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。* f( M) G3 }) n7 S* |1 p
* t% y) |: R1 A% V: S截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。
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5 K; Y$ B& d# [: C0 |4 }, v简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。+ B7 D9 R" S9 X& b( f0 b: y
3 b1 C0 s+ Y. A' s' |! F9 Y& o如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。/ b5 T% W8 x3 o; y" `0 A8 E, @: n' F8 X
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