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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
! p% g9 g5 X. l- [+ K$ K) J4 {尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。2 [! p( J. y- b9 f; F2 y, W
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。. \! A& |9 L4 ^' o9 h
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其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。
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9 @* ]4 V2 M. m$ P' i2 fAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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5 g, W* p$ g3 l“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”* }6 h) A/ V" i2 z/ A
) S) }8 Y+ G- t平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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3 v! a4 l! ~- Q6 E8 U& R因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。$ \8 p" R- ^7 w
! E) ^5 k; `# T$ `BTC 图表暗示了什么4 z1 \# J3 g' L) }- K6 h+ U
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。 M; c' M4 @% ]5 P+ c4 e
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。
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1 T! ]# ]1 P& B( N从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。$ H m) Z0 P# k4 K3 w: m! A
$ r1 {! O# F0 j* a当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。
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3 f# Z( f6 P$ N2 W( a- U最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。: k* H O h& H/ r ]! h3 _7 O
0 A: `- D5 [7 h+ j, S7 ` Q最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。: ^. e1 W$ e. ?: J, ~6 I' |' }
& Q% r4 d" Z6 b1 e; K5 H- _! s/ O简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。/ `( x5 r0 K9 x$ \+ g& @
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如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。
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