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[lastpost] => 2750630 比特币最低费用现在便宜了 90%（转） 1753006053 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎- _3 u& }, n; r: i1 E3 M
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
/ H$ [! U$ n" o- p6 T4 K$ K$ T六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。+ `% G3 k3 i1 y8 [% ~1 c+ g8 q1 ^* Q8 {
& p7 p/ s) l+ ? o* t, Z! Y这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?$ A; Y# k7 o' ?- ?0 @- m
2 |+ h) |. C0 _随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
4 n+ }+ T9 m5 [- y- `/ _/ E1 L6 {要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。: i, B7 Z+ g( f, H- K
- q% Y( \4 M( u6 E在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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: b5 z$ D4 P5 O* m- D8 @" \有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。3 c- w* k9 N- p: u4 P) T( {, q% X
: W3 X* @% |/ C5 v- x简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。+ X Z k1 B1 o; }( E
$ x5 G* s( Z" a/ p1 e/ i- O) N9 g三年后，形势发生了逆转。' u7 k( w# @, P. T7 }9 N* J! r& M
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这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。: [ B8 ?" ]1 R
" ]+ V& a3 M1 b( ?: T$ P g& S1 w$ j5 f发生了什么变化？机构资本.! C2 }2 i' l4 G0 J( z _: W6 C
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。8 G" U% Z* q7 I; ^1 g6 c! _+ Y
2 O& a! ^# G! }5 C/ Z零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。& R8 ~- S2 W1 i+ U" Q! `3 S5 M. p
" d, }/ j+ E7 }因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。, l; a8 ^ {* l- i* z& k
, m: L5 ]- i* c6 m. w' W9 T/ ]山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上, m$ ~0 y6 R) I" _2 a: T
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。
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这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。9 q5 C+ |1 K5 I
; _+ D8 N( N) `1 X/ AXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
* i" \+ `% v% X5 H
& X9 V5 |+ m5 n$ p- ]- W尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。
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5 P& x8 e; Y; \! f# z7 H在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。3 p# l+ q3 g K l: o# h/ Q# u! A ~
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