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[虚拟币交流]
比特币的关键价格枢纽：8.5万美元支撑位还是9.3万美元突破位？（转）
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然而，85,000 美元的价位不仅仅是一个数字——它代表着心理和结构性意义的交汇。链上数据显示，短期 SOPR（支出产出利润率）为 1.01。
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历史上，这是价格回调的前兆。9 C$ A0 r8 F4 q) j& Q
此外，斐波那契回撤位和成交量分布表明，如果市场企稳，该区域可能吸引大量买家。成功守住该区域可能会引发反弹，目标价位为 93,000 美元；但如果未能守住，则可能再次测试 2025 年 4 月的低点 74,470 美元。+ N" [ o* l) x5 d5 n7 |
随着市场持续下滑
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- C9 N+ f- m5 \& K2 ~机构情绪：脆弱的复苏9 X& `2 g8 v H( X+ T* [# i/ [
尽管技术面描绘出一幅黯淡的景象，但机构投资者的情绪却呈现出截然不同的景象。11 月份比特币 ETF 资金流出量创下 37.9 亿美元的纪录。
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最初发出投降的信号5 F/ A$ y: k2 }' r& b0 Z+ \: q
然而，到11月下旬，却出现了7000万美元的净流入。 b: _+ |# s/ k% }$ i7 p
暗示卖方已筋疲力竭
3 I& P T- q. W8 a这一趋势在12月加速发展，富达的FBTC和贝莱德的IBIT相继问世。, S0 ?- v. o# J7 B0 F: E
分别录得848万美元和2.384亿美元
0 c. T+ v( @& m分别在流入量中。
8 Z O. ?6 M6 G# o7 Q9 M% H$ T主要参与者的战略举措进一步凸显了机构资本的重新进入。先锋集团和美国银行都采取了行动。
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% B. o8 F* s# h9 q( a) k扩大对数字资产的获取途径
) }- R9 q$ f6 h2 y对客户而言，这预示着机构风险偏好可能发生转变。这些发展表明，尽管短期看跌情绪持续，但人们对比特币作为投资组合资产的长期效用依然充满信心。
4 m3 q O- Z* C. G" v! ^3 c情景分析及战略意义
1 B8 q5 w4 i* k6 w93,000 美元的阻力位是一个关键转折点。突破这一门槛可能会重新点燃上涨势头，尤其是在机构 ETF 资金流入加速的情况下。相反，如果收盘价持续低于 85,000 美元，则可能会加剧回调，并测试 70,000 美元附近的流动性。& c7 ?6 R; p$ j) Y- {, Y
1 y% n" D* K9 k s9 f- M, t对于投资者而言，未来的发展方向取决于对两个变量的监控：
5 n5 g% f N9 D/ K" U1.ETF资金流动动态即使在技术面疲软的情况下，ETF资金流入的持续逆转也可能起到支撑作用。8 r# t. p9 I( S! ?
2.链上指标:
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" M/ P: D( ~4 W, ]) V' n6 KSOPR 跌破 1.0 或出现[激增]! |+ c9 J( p! F
未平仓合约量过高可能表明市场处于超卖状态。
0 S: I6 Q7 k" {6 K结论：比特币的十字路口
6 H+ V" \4 c% C! F比特币当前的价格转折反映了更广泛的市场十字路口。从技术层面来看，85,000 美元的支撑区域对空头而言是成败在此一举的关键时刻，而机构投资者的情绪则暗示着潜在的底部形成过程。投资者必须仔细权衡这些信号——短期波动可能持续，但机构投资者长期接受比特币的趋势依然稳固。在市场努力应对这两种力量的冲击时，耐心和自律至关重要。
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这价位真是让人捏把汗，机构还在装死，散户可得盯紧点，别被割了还帮人数钱 |
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价位对于比特币来说确实关键，要看市场反弹能否成功突破93,000美元， |
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