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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑6 f0 J4 z! G7 R3 N* ^
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, G" c9 g- f) z/ G4 R/ m; I- c凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
, t' v) T+ ^7 D6 U, x
. x$ c: M6 F4 H. G, L7 v3 \' Z) g& {G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率): n; _& c2 O' p1 ^' N# n
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [/ X/ q$ z ~% U# S* n3 j3 A
+ Y& E, G2 X7 c+ g4 x' A9 P& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
7 \2 h0 _& x! g* c0 s既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
1 P. A! Q9 o! U( s; L) w+ ]7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
8 s" D/ W( Y! K( _% V- K做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
, B3 x: U3 b, m4 G; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
7 l/ \, t% i6 r& h* u& V(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
0 @5 C+ c3 ~& `$ }& i( Z6 P0 B8 ?( n, F
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 * r5 F: D9 I( w6 C# D
; a* j4 e/ c1 r
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
. _* A7 l- c( J2 f" E6 s# B, E3 ~
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 3 x( ]6 H, G l/ N! k! N0 i
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _) G" x' O) C) g8 h& m& o
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 9 l4 U- E6 V$ o. X. A8 u3 X$ }2 x
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
" k$ D$ {9 z6 c% L) j( I9 j( mS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
9 P# u6 i! f S% [; S$ q; n" a3 f( W; |' w( v
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 6 y* l7 ~; Q" o$ J% _0 p/ S
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
" E8 m. }( Q+ GS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
; j' F) }8 h4 w* M; o6 M" ]9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 ^9 {; o/ @: a7 l' _+ _+ NS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
% g+ r, q! F- A/ \% c1 c6 q8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v6 e- {1 X" e% }$ R! C1 C# ]0 @7 y
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 . l. B3 G# j# d: s+ ~! w. S
5 G- S5 ]1 C6 x5 G2 }4 @# [
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
$ t6 z7 k* G+ N5 Z* p* ]$ `7 G# G, p1 J. ]8 q6 W5 ^2 ?, e' x
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q0 A6 l% f' t. q4 S3 R" G6 M
; y. m: \5 j7 s
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 0 `) G& Q2 g: Y1 a# J) p( O; T+ o
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
" P' a1 ?2 l; H8 Q% \* K; s% O d! tS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
Z: Z8 k* {& A6 Y9 r# X: P) D
- A4 o& Y b: F% K: I2 h7 K类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
& }( g" X! |0 u# v0 @ `' A% r7 o1 i P; `
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; : m/ e- K* P& z7 H3 k& |5 b
) V! f% |! s7 oS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s3 o [1 [7 v) M5 t
; m' V% T, u, P% O) D( z! ~( j& L) |# r# Y2 Y
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
% ]5 s. |# f Z2 D1 ~6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
, p* |! U3 o0 L" d( G8 tS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 # O: ^4 V# R% W3 ~) B: d
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
: R4 |( C _: Z( c4 g(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o/ [& B. b' e& K+ [% w+ I
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \# A, {& z5 _% |
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
0 p1 b5 u+ q0 P+ Y) q( ], k9 L T& t' R1 a& R4 v5 J4 b
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 p9 |/ C2 a6 r+ y. T) ^2 q# q, I; I
* Z% _& N7 Q" G2 A6 Z
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 % v% X. y% M& y1 R2 S* p0 S
/ d" K+ r$ ?7 g8 @3 |8 x7 R% c5 d于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?- K( h b5 C6 o, o) N2 W5 |. }6 \
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
`, h9 y. ^# i6 H' r/ NG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
7 H6 z- i9 L7 J6 p+ D$ n) P# X# M6 t; h3 J5 T; H( R0 |+ l$ P
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ' [$ t8 q* R2 ?( h9 X
6 K! {* e5 @* j5 }G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]- ]. y! G. F- x# `: {8 ?+ T
t- k, B0 Z- ]当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \. ~4 I# b$ }& i& ]2 ]$ N+ K
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
: j- R+ z7 {7 @8 N9 e( n# Q通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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