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[lastpost] => 2767437 比特币价格暴跌警告，BTC 可能跌破 11 万美元，ETH 可能跌破 4,000 美元（转） 1758377785 人生如赌
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[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]比特币在刚结束的周末持续跳战站稳3 万美元未果，在震荡多时后，今（10）日早晨8 点再次失守3 万美元大关，最低来到29,950 美元、近24 小时下跌0.75%。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]  [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)] 以太坊走势大致雷同，同时间最低跌至1,846 美元，近24 小时下跌0.63%。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]另一方面，根据The Block Research数据显示，由现货比特币ETF 申请带来的交易热潮，似乎有持续降温的迹象，目前交易所加密货币现货交易量（7 天移动平均值）已从6 月27 日的近期高点194 亿美元下降至7 月8 日的142 亿美元。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]  [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]不过值得注意的是，CME 的比特币期货市场未平仓合约，已达到27 亿美元，创下一年多来的新高。在现货交易所的流动量持续低迷，加上衍生品市场未平仓量升高的背景下，市场可能会将迎来大规模的波动。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]  [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]对现在以及下半年的行情判断： [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]现在的行情：我在之前的文章说强调过很多次，我对于短期的资金面情绪，这个是没人能把握的，因此短期（一两周）不太好判断，但七月底之前，行情一定会回调（极有可能大幅）。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]对于下半年的行情判断：这点是我最近反复找数据，以及和人沟通的点。我现在有两个行情预感： [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]1.有可能下半年会走出一波小牛行情，这波小牛行情的特征是： [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]①快速；②普涨；③不破前高，但能大饼能破三万五。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]2.这波下去之后，会有长达9个月左右的探底过程，期间可能穿插一些板块的结构性行情（如RWAL2GAMEFI等）。目前针对以上两种行情预感，暂时没有能够两全的策略，因此我再思考思考，再公布自己的操作方式。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]  [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]我认为牛市前，值得布局的标的 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]固定资产：BTC，ETH [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]这两个，我认为任何时候都是值得相信的，这也是我一直以来都在做的事情，就不多说了。 [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]L2赛道：ARB [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]今年坎昆升级即将来临，以太坊即将正式进入快速阶段，而受此影响，L2的容量将会更大，也会更加便宜，而L2四大天王至今为止，只有Arb和OP发币了，但是为什么只选择了Arb了，有几个方面的原因： 个人体验：作为体验者，Arb我个人认为更为丝滑。 生态：虽然目前Op和coinbase合作搞了base链，但是Arb的生态无疑是更为出色的，不仅如此，Arb去年到今年，诞生了Beacon、aidoge等吸睛的项目，也是OP没法比的。 龙头效应：从上一轮牛市的感受来看，市场十分认龙头，比如UNI再怎么样都稳坐DEX第一，AAVE、CRV等一直占据重要地位，而Arb目前就是L2的龙头，从数据和体验以及生态是全方位碾压的，所以我认为，市场会保证Arb的价值，哪怕有的人觉得他市值较高。
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[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]BTC二层：ORDI [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85)]作为这两年来为数不多的创新，比特币二层发展过程肯定不会就此结束。我觉得几个理由： 5 K2 z( U" o: Z A9 q, y
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