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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
6 z7 u9 R; S+ O# H0 J; a% b断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。; n2 N5 d% k* R8 h. |
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上$ @1 V! q' f7 v/ H
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
1 \4 `: Z) T) L0 O+ h& G! m波动率历史低点，爆发到来？: B0 C4 E5 L W
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄. B; F* h' k, P) I% i6 w8 L
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些) V' b* z. S" c/ s s9 M% v
从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的7 f$ j0 F7 b% X, S( v
低点。
# p4 E" A7 o3 r- c1 @2 r全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
. ?4 q" K+ \& Q# [* P3 W另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突! w @7 u/ c2 h1 N+ \
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。
( n# {# o8 [/ C( m目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
& `" @0 {6 f! T% c" w" j9 s# r# d率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。; B/ S, S& u) n0 Q! W+ a
美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael
4 ]6 Z, V2 ?" l8 R8 g2 w& `" {Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
/ O: M- R- x9 l- G9 i2 {" N1 U, h“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种
1 u) |2 F; w0 s! s1 d# S情况不会在短时间内结束。”
2 z" h! |/ P0 L% l- ~/ c) D# T纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下
. v) l* H- H0 U3 V$ @* U降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。/ O# {! {: n0 s
比特币ETF即将通过？9 \% c8 j/ M, D8 E J* C# N
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg$ j8 @. {, ?8 N/ b9 ~4 H: B, P
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上" o9 q# Z& I4 _# c
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的! L7 A" Y$ d4 ^" N
问题。
" p) B% A4 O9 Z/ j, K1 k5 R+ b* G似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。: {+ W: H/ \/ T/ f* `) r8 C
\/ R' ^9 |' x |
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