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[lastpost] => 2759948 以太坊距离5,000美元只差一步 现货ETF同期表现大胜比特币-转 1756161229 gkfbuw
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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* L! [+ {' W8 c+ t$ `值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。( t: X9 p, A2 L# F4 K2 \, i% G
6 ~; N1 i( `5 ]1 k4 A0 u) N3 O然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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宏观信号依然支持0 o5 M5 Q4 e" [* C
美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。
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% E3 v, U% \" U+ r该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。
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从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
# i: Z/ ~9 S( r$ x1 J$ q5 v3 _, C# |+ z' p3 @# Q
市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.8 {8 _$ \5 J! F; N% h7 j# x
+ N0 a. u3 k8 p1 r3 `1 h! g
这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。/ g- X( |2 Z& d- r5 f
" Q) k0 s4 i1 [
著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。" a& j a0 ~; t1 o& _2 v c
* J g" C/ `, e$ r) H8 D' q0 \9 r他补充道，" o2 N" f. `7 C6 O0 x
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“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”6 t3 l$ H0 A& F2 N( Q/ o
+ V% q- ^: Y, a! I# P& [2 r+ b韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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! C3 E% b$ l4 P& n. i他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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亚洲比特币市场再度走强
5 D# ?2 F; K' t) |: A亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.; Q4 n. x. A/ I' h6 j
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此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。+ R. U" k, y6 i2 z$ I9 ?2 Y
2 @* O$ q4 J( d& b+ X相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
. v8 l# C1 v% i: Y! C- J" ^# c& b) w* X* Z: u$ J; \
然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。. J& G3 t. s3 M7 k2 ]3 f
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧: }; X3 d) U% `7 X
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