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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能飙升至 165,000 美元,因与黄金的比较引发人们的兴趣(转)
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关键亮点4 R( [" Z9 e6 \" k- L8 C
比特币ETF流入表明投资者信心增强' P% L6 U" T! S2 F, _( P% l
黄金依然强劲,但可能会吸引投资者转向比特币
" D: f* l/ |8 j+ v5 e* z& V根据趋势预测,比特币理论价值将达到 165000% F' A% t) V- S5 `
与黄金相比,比特币有望达到 165,000 美元
* o! w* c; T3 x L4 @! K根据摩根大通的一份报告,比特币相对于黄金而言被严重低估,这意味着到 2025 年底其潜在价值将增长至 165,000 美元。9 h% X, u g0 y2 z8 w+ l6 u/ \
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ETF资本流入凸显投资者兴趣日益增长
8 W2 Q% L9 a- J1 P9 r! n, ^" S摩根大通指出,近几个月流入黄金和比特币ETF的资金激增。市场数据也印证了这一趋势。. }3 K' t+ H/ f: ~$ N4 |# ~: c( O
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1. 自2025年8月底以来,黄金ETF每周净流入量在18亿美元至42亿美元之间
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黄金ETF净资本流入。数据来源:世界黄金协会- H$ t: D! }8 W# L/ d3 C8 B- J
2.2025年9月,黄金ETF流入资金约136亿美元。同期,现货比特币ETF净流入35.3亿美元。
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现货比特币ETF的净资本流入。来源:SoSoValue
A& h) ]7 x$ q" N9 c8 S这一活动表明,比特币相对于黄金的价值可能被低估。摩根大通报告称,比特币相对于黄金的波动率指数已跌破2,这意味着比特币吸引的风险资本可能几乎是黄金的两倍。
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理论估值与市场相关性9 k! }% ]; P) V O
考虑到这一点,比特币的市值需要增长42%才能与60亿美元的私人黄金投资相匹配,这意味着理论上的估值为16.5万美元。然而,报告指出,到2024年底,比特币的估值被高估了。
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1 F; k0 B) U$ E2 [两种资产在短期(30天)和长期(365天)内保持相关性,而90天移动平均线仍显示负相关性。
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' t- n5 _& j7 d! B r( b# l# W$ O比特币与黄金的相关性。来源:Glassnode
( @. C+ F [9 g图表显示,自2025年8月中旬以来,黄金的表现一直优于比特币。在市场波动之前,黄金创下了历史新高,而比特币则短暂下跌。摩根大通强调,随着比特币的复苏,黄金的投资吸引力下降,这增加了对全球首个加密货币的需求。
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感觉比特币真有机会追黄金了,资金流向很明显啊。
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老哥估计也是一个理论很内行的玩家,感激楼主的分享。 |
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你的理论打法不错的呀,赢钱了应该是打法对你有用哦~来收藏下了解下了 |
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