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本帖最后由 caoch 于 2026-2-6 00:28 编辑
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# F% y- }: G' ^+ v& a比特币跌破 72000 美元关口（比特币最新已跌破 71000 美元），把加密市场的「信仰」问题推到台前。在全球风险偏好骤降的背景下，投资者正重新评估比特币在市场动荡中的定位，加密资产的避险叙事遭遇拷问。* k6 x6 N' w: J$ h+ q0 @6 }8 a
, s& o, M* @1 B x3 F) j& a据彭博，比特币周三在纽约尾盘一度跌至 71739 美元，为约 15 个月来首次跌破 72000 美元。相较去年 10 月的峰值，比特币累计回撤已超过 42%，年内跌幅约 17%，价格滑落至 2024 年 11 月 6 日以来最低水平。# b% W! ~1 W: {
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本轮下跌不再仅是加密市场内部去杠杆的延续，而是更广泛的跨资产压力所致。周三全球市场出现同步抛售，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌超过 2%，软件、芯片等对利率更敏感的板块普遍承压，比特币随之走弱。
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; Z" G9 q% G* j8 U h% u% j情绪层面，「信仰危机」正在形成。Monarq Asset Management 管理合伙人 Shiliang Tang 称，市场正在经历一场「crisis of faith」。1 f0 g* J+ l8 E/ [
9 K- _7 ~. _$ T' W8 rEfficient Frontier 业务发展负责人 Andrew Tu 则表示，加密市场情绪已处于「极度恐惧」，若 72000 美元失守，比特币可能下探至 68000 美元，甚至回落至 2024 年初次反弹前的低位区间。' W! e, T" s2 \
: y/ O) w5 X: k4 r5 Q/ P" ~据 Polymarket，比特币今年有 83% 的概率跌至 65000 美元，而跌破 55,000 美元的概率已攀升至约 59%。' k f( ?4 s# x; {
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3 h5 i6 \* H9 F2 H+ x! `2 M风险偏好急转，比特币被当作「高波动风险资产」, @2 k" { q$ O
据彭博，周三对比特币的抛压与更广泛的跨资产紧张局势相关，而不是单一由加密资产内部清算驱动。这一点对投资者意义明确，在市场进入同步卖出阶段时，比特币并未表现出独立于风险资产的韧性，反而更像高波动的长尾风险资产。5 }* J' y9 r d T
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纳斯达克 100 指数当日跌幅超过 2%，拖累扩散至软件、芯片等板块。比特币在同一交易日跌破关键整数位，强化了其与风险偏好共振的市场认知。: O: [: \5 w4 x/ y9 h
; j7 D8 {) q) h, k( f: ]; q, Z从峰值回撤 42%，加密市场一周蒸发超 4600 亿美元& |0 i& s" W; m
价格回撤正在通过市值收缩快速传导。据 CoinGecko 数据，加密资产自去年 10 月峰值以来市值合计缩水约 1.7 万亿美元。仅过去一周，加密市场市值就减少超过 4600 亿美元。
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比特币作为最大加密货币，其下跌幅度和速度对市场情绪具有「锚定效应」。当比特币年内跌幅扩大至约 17% 时，风险控制、保证金管理与资金赎回压力往往会同时上升，进而加剧整体波动。$ E4 |8 X, ]6 e, m# H
5 ]8 s( E) B2 [7 j" {/ ^「信仰危机」如何出现：从强平冲击转向情绪溃散
( u: V' Q# n) `# y$ S1 ~. M市场参与者的表述显示，情绪变化正在成为核心变量。Shiliang Tang 所称的「crisis of faith」，指向的是投资者对加密资产中长期叙事与短期定价机制的同步动摇。: n2 p! u5 ?# [# v
* D5 m w, o+ _! R更关键的是下跌驱动的变化。据彭博，此前下跌阶段更多由加密资产特有的清算推动，而周三压力则来自更广泛的跨市场紧张。
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这意味着，即便加密市场内部杠杆出清告一段落，只要外部风险资产继续承压，比特币仍可能缺乏独立反弹的催化。
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' y {8 v/ k( d3 A, ^72000 成短期分水岭，预测市场押注年内跌至 65000% A- f% S( x) A6 }( o
多位交易端人士把 72000 美元视为短期关键价位。Andrew Tu 指出，若该水平无法守住，比特币「很可能」下探至 68000 美元，并可能回到 2024 年初次反弹前的低位区间。
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据 Polymarket，比特币今年有 83% 的概率跌至 65000 美元，而跌破 55000 美元的概率已攀升至约 59%。1 a% z+ a) M3 e. o* y$ g& X
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资金面同样释放出摇摆信号。据彭博汇编数据，美国上市比特币现货 ETF 周一录得约 5.62 亿美元净流入，但周二随即转为净流出 2.72 亿美元，显示增量资金并不稳定。6 ?' C& U5 @5 J5 X
: L7 s* q- W+ r. b在价格下行与资金流反复之下，市场对比特币「压力期避险资产」角色的怀疑正在上升。1 }7 x- P2 t9 r" U9 Q
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这波跌得都开始怀疑自己是不是被套了，信仰真经不起考验啊 |
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