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$ U+ z% ?- k7 w) z1 m+ i: O
很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]
* M: S: E" \; u; H% e! J
9 g6 T0 i: Z! o; u大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
6 ]6 r) X6 k# i# f9 G7 T+ X& f有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。( v1 l: [& m2 A7 z
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
( |/ L& ?4 @1 C$ ?0 E- Z7 c) W# E, Q6 ~; Y
[1]
- _7 I7 w! g2 l英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。$ e H1 T+ r2 T: ~4 g/ U
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。. C( |3 k! a8 F, M
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。- x4 O& m3 C i) O- M' \
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。4 @! {1 p$ R6 G: R" n' |
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。& M% q8 @9 b8 b; D+ @7 o, S
主胜的开法:- C- g5 W5 o' X9 f/ g
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
! c# x7 d1 I5 H( x4 y你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
" I2 }; Z& G, R j2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。4 w* C0 G, k, o4 w( G5 v
主负:" V+ ]6 t5 m+ q/ E* E
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。
+ n0 P( e6 M$ [* M6 \去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
; p% n- n' t+ _4 p9 V" o平局:
- B( r3 B k- Q3 \2 g现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。7 n F. ?# W, z' d
8 A) L. S& @ Q# T v
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
4 K. G5 o+ f% L) S# V$ b7 m1 r威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
; r% ~: r: P% E- I- ^: L维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。$ Q/ }) m+ u1 V" c9 D" U! f O2 _; ^- X
思维与上场一样。+ t5 {2 O- ^/ B
( k5 b- o# \2 }. u# k4 [! h: s8 _
[3]' m% Y @, P% S" {( {, n3 u
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
( s, K9 k4 G' c% \) [3 l$ ]威廉:1.28/4.5/8。( h! k6 N7 I, t. U7 k/ @
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。7 @6 f/ X5 M0 F/ t: [2 U- D6 \( i
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。" ]. c; g! t3 a, R% ]& U
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
! s, c* G# M! A# a& @/ P$ F主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。: W+ E* Y6 S q
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。5 X7 {* R# O" ?- Q) z# d
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。9 N. i c A5 L( K% q8 j
% H8 H" x! Y- R- p; [
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
6 E/ N3 Q% r" C9 _* q结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。7 R7 P+ Y- g2 {! }# ~5 ?! A
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。
9 S2 }& c' R& d4 m S+ `1 G! w( t以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。4 \' G+ @6 R, V! }2 T
+ Y6 f" q: a9 R- z3 Y+ y3 u3 D! D2 D很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。
' m- j1 A8 t* C4 M% p
7 Z n' r0 q+ p1 W例如:1 ]; Z- x* h) L0 s% }
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯3 ]" h* h. f# \9 g7 i5 W2 a8 S
双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
" t9 h% J* s% R所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
% [9 |8 P! }5 C- F* n7 g: c/ V9 A: E0 @9 e
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。; C; a5 g" ^) l$ X( I7 u% P
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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