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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
. U; r! e2 x. H! T0 u自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
9 V2 ?' c# z# U# B" [
( r) c1 e# \) q& v) V自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。1 r7 j/ A. p. J' N
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
" @' ?8 K: h/ f9 ?/ k8 k+ \ s- `$ V8 a( f
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。+ p s8 u, @% M ^+ t3 \3 p2 E
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?4 k' U2 |+ G7 E0 Z9 V' Y+ D9 l
4 f; P/ `, P$ J- L% o观察ETF和鲸鱼活动. l8 _1 l- P0 w6 ~. x: E l
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
$ v& @" O1 M/ f0 v- {6 B, U, v$ R. q4 K' d U7 M1 o" }* g4 n9 C5 Y
上周降至1300 BTC。$ H$ u# L$ p) X" v; |( p; O4 Q
1 \5 S0 f$ X% V# N1 b从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。; h6 u" S! I* n
! ^: ?5 m. a" N I6 r7 m6 g鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
8 T' D! d& Z8 F" e' x$ w& L: B4 p$ ~5 V; v
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。 ]5 O$ T/ l. V- g# r
. K. j' d5 K4 X6 ~' CSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
* m4 Z1 u' b8 ~ I, Q8 e5 e8 B! {1 X! U) o. h& R
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。( |/ I2 k$ o, V' Y( V3 p
; S" y2 g( k( ]- d6 X比特币会突破其区间吗?# A& Y/ O! H7 ^% T) _
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。/ J x: z1 g9 c+ O& a
1 n X3 e6 X3 G5 D1 Q根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
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) o0 ~2 ^1 Y! C, z( Z" y因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。. _3 ^! y/ _6 M
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。5 L0 R B$ W2 o! P; _9 I8 v
% }; `; W2 `7 L. K- C9 q4 w! Y4 W位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。$ C1 \8 E* x/ f$ r! A3 p
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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