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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎5 C: k. k$ W9 W6 {) V7 [
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？6 Y ]0 m; O ^$ q, G5 \; |
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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, S Z- `1 i. l6 N; S5 P# H* p然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。
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$ L$ L5 c7 {: l. } i这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?6 L7 f1 B5 N: i/ X+ }; V
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随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌" ~0 ~1 ?' o8 G& A* g/ w+ I
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
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: n2 U, z8 v) F( \6 n" ?% n在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。6 v6 \9 r# S) J& V! k8 ~
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有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。$ J6 A; R* g: L0 f% U0 f/ o4 f8 ^
8 E% I. z' V4 D: ]3 I4 m& A简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。
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& T! H/ h4 g+ h2 p三年后，形势发生了逆转。 N, {' g4 {8 R4 L! \ w( O
6 Z4 ?: Y/ T5 F6 q- N: D1 C这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。) b" q( ^8 F' A
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。' M1 G& ~. Y: Q! C" U, ^3 J
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零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。5 N U* @) [0 a% i5 r# D) ~
% U$ Y9 i" ?# p% c V* [4 h$ b因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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4 g: p9 M5 `) @, P: S, y山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上' c- v' n9 o2 w% w* s
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。6 d, ^4 k5 g( N5 r* f
" E2 B0 n# p2 S; t9 c# n$ L* I这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。( a; G# q/ g4 [7 [
1 D( F- S) k* F8 CXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
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* i F; N- D$ }5 Z0 y尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。8 c+ B0 u* K: X+ ?- X
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在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。$ H$ H' o0 U0 a H5 P* m. K. I' w
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