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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑7 W$ t4 v( o9 n( E+ w- {2 x2 {
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k3 }% J3 X( S) G/ U2 B/ |

; X; x3 G9 P; }0 o$ G* Q5 ~G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)6 Y( {# h0 ^& N
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!    " j! o& v& r, U, Y( m
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- J9 k4 d/ T4 U  w做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `# A& \8 v' F* Z" F' J, u
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/ k4 t2 ~' O% h& B; O! K. J( t(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n
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. C, w( M. R3 }9 x(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00    % L8 J, E* ?, O- |
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(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t
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, T. p( U  L6 C- G$ p; g! C, H(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    & z% N- q' Z$ p$ W# L
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( d- A) }( O7 y* p" ^- L- S0 F) W我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值   
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S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01    9 i( i2 z& w5 G/ k; c( x

( i: s9 I8 f( X+ C, x- T3 ^1 E" U: R% AS2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00    9 D( v% f6 i: i5 c6 @. W
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$ T& c# n. G. ~" B5 dS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87    2 D1 s9 t9 L- R7 l& i* g
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S4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \. _$ X! m  {5 l" [. m6 K9 b# H9 Z
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7 W( l; U$ i* O1 i& g1 R; x2 o, U3 w4 c1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91    ' m0 K. a0 v( l! O# ]

, Q! U% t: N% g1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l4 Q2 ?% E# K% G+ d& w6 S5 M
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90    . M/ S3 m. W5 f. _. r, k
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T! ~4 f9 `# n9 z: x  k

/ G$ i4 P# j6 N5 ~2 O- a2 }0 j类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;    ( u; p8 @- H3 |! |# R6 j' \- `2 n

6 ]$ o8 v/ |% T' CS2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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S3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31    6 X9 H2 g) m$ H
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' M" ~/ a: y; _& oS4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    ( \" l# `. p* U6 I, K/ x
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5 Q9 g5 {- L7 B) n) r% |, S(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    , Y) I7 F% _' I$ V$ M3 N  E
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75   
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% [8 Q( _4 X% \F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5    5 }# _1 q! Y1 m* J( r

2 |4 ?9 {) }, W8 `0 L" r于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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, ~: u) \6 ^& {: o+ D0 p3 j$ bG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M4 ]4 ^9 C9 R7 U, \
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! b% z8 T. C8 M$ J, b  ~G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    ( \; e4 x& ~0 P0 X( N  N
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]) ^( `9 j7 ?8 A( E- y7 ^

4 E; S  A6 S, B6 ]5 G6 ~当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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