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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑 |& x }" ~& X* B4 x
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k. c! e) k& w( @7 X+ J; A% o
7 x" O z# y; B6 D6 m% C/ R
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
4 y5 u1 @6 |/ |什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
( \- O' N. S7 b% s5 f: x4 J8 W p1 I# n5 R( a* [
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
7 M3 M8 n! b# j( ]7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s" ~# {8 u7 W# a" g' }7 r: r# m
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" ` E# h5 v) a- H. t8 Y
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
/ @; _. @+ I$ \(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n1 V8 G+ R) Q9 D2 }( [
4 A# j4 q) Z2 p! r" W
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 , }* a. j% J2 A4 k9 @8 Q8 f
/ Y/ e1 e2 V |4 L5 z) H# u7 ?
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t1 K0 J( k) n2 k8 C
& c; e2 C% H" Z# N% {, X( ^" \1 u: J(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 + c' [. Y( c/ M5 B) A- p: m
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _- C1 B- Q7 V c3 u9 [/ n
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
4 u) f7 I( T$ y* d5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c* n' [! U) u4 `* m3 ~+ R* n4 R
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
' b. j3 k2 {* ?# Q1 D+ f2 t, J& c& f$ c
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 3 [% j4 m; \+ t9 B* j
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S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 " ?: l% ^) E; `$ m9 Q2 ]7 Y
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j9 e8 U: O2 {4 G. g% o
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \6 E) ]1 L; v x: N) ^: l' u7 S
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v% ?) _0 w- X" h$ p% ^ ?
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ( C; A1 `8 ?2 `5 w
6 Q- c* k$ t, X) W% l' V) |1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
% |5 U: g0 B( R$ `+ n- r
+ {) ?, T( W8 r5 U/ ~% G1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
+ x d" j& R, Z: R) j6 `$ C* X6 i3 A2 d) @
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
# R0 h( H8 T% S( z9 ?- _' ~$ C: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r7 ]0 D2 V$ d5 v/ W% N
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T, q2 K' w5 E5 u7 Y8 t! G
2 ]4 v$ |* g% g/ `, Z
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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( V3 e2 F$ Q6 l9 U w% a7 US1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; / ?* I% j7 s/ U f: L$ |1 {+ A8 g
! S$ ~1 T8 W4 S: XS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s& \# f) q/ V' v' E3 F$ i
; m' V% T, u, P% O
. K8 I1 i0 b8 K( F+ t6 H. n2 V$ PS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
4 ^% p ]) j9 |9 p& i6 S- C: m6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
$ M2 o7 v, e( R. t) BS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
" r. A% k; }; B5 V: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~( k! @" n* I) f* _5 Q4 ^" m
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 4 b4 W) v; A$ |6 e! t
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 / j% R7 D8 b; v) @1 K4 u! S
$ g- g2 S) m) ?7 YF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
9 @. d( H/ ?& X0 _8 V, Z7 B5 X, K4 `( j! G, i2 [5 A2 ~
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
+ _5 u4 c; ?3 q* [9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
$ r6 K; }5 R# y7 l# W& iG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M9 H! l% w$ |. ~+ G+ M7 P2 ]
+ D$ n) P# X# M @' t& K2 K3 f" g& w- ?) {- p" h
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 5 m/ W1 A" a: {* o
6 N6 ^# l+ x/ Z
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
0 B. b, K3 S. A1 {. Y6 F! K; ]' Y' {) d% p! p( z0 |: `
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \# {# \& n. {' a$ z: T/ i/ V
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i, \3 e0 x" U8 M) e0 H
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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