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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
3 N- J+ b' F2 b! r) m* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c& Z4 z! | c( ]$ z9 H
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
. A/ r' m! n: p& S+ l, ]3 J" P
1 c# r; G, D4 E2 \G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
9 S& [8 x6 {& E6 x0 q什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [/ P' z Y8 Q X3 S* u/ Z2 C' {8 c
+ G0 q4 d( j+ K( ?, R
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h$ S2 n7 k. q' q. j {
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 2 f1 {- v" d7 y0 Q/ R1 ~2 c
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
7 E q2 U [7 w- d* H# W3 r* L做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
$ \& K: c& k& ]! Z( R" V) j( _, o- x; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
0 F+ L! \, u/ N3 N7 w(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
0 e5 S0 {+ h: Y: t
7 U1 U& k; E6 V0 r(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 5 ]( }% x- e( E) a/ `/ T
8 [2 O* `5 s. ^+ |! h. I(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
7 x1 T' @- y, `% W
9 n* P ?# x( F(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 $ F5 {$ F* `$ X4 {; r8 i! g
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _; @& }8 w; Y4 n. ?: ]' b
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 8 S' _) D) X$ r! U
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c9 J+ J4 }3 v; V
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
, d0 A, p3 H3 w
4 H* i }! @! m2 i: d# J8 @S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 . Z) w# E1 K3 E
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
# |( R- ?8 h: x$ A7 F3 D1 AS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
' i5 y/ U# @: J, [9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
# ^, D9 r |/ B& ~# YS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \9 q; O, j B+ m
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
* y# h7 J+ B4 p; w& |1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ; |- K$ a0 o4 f: a
% `5 d% j: C* X
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
2 h2 e* g' H! `9 e* Z# c. U" g6 `) E: ?5 O3 `0 _$ ?
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
7 N/ e( j! l; [! i: w' \
$ ^2 i3 |+ R5 D. i* P1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 # G9 c8 D3 A- Y1 ?
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r2 e, Q$ t# _# P! ?* i# q
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
1 H5 Y) ^: n {; U1 v
- e4 N/ x) s* V2 _( R8 Z7 }类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
# @5 y4 S7 T; ^9 ^$ F3 O- ^8 \# R: X
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; + g! U# ^) x& ]5 y" ^" d$ X
3 b, @( j, r1 t5 l* x+ TS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
% ]5 F+ V) }" {: s+ s& c; m' V% T, u, P% O
- [1 \5 c/ \/ ~0 T2 GS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
4 M, X B2 |4 p4 r- f3 h- l6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
; R; W: k& C( F/ `S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 1 b/ K' ~# E* \- s& s: q
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~5 G6 t8 k2 n8 n
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o: o) f; m6 E. R6 t9 n* ~- Q+ u
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
+ k! c/ c8 T, R' g好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 . K$ L j5 l9 F% t# M [
) q( ], k9 L T& t
0 i5 h! m/ L$ t! {) HB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
" o- ?& ?. V$ U# \, x# _
# o9 v$ o1 `) y x5 }F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
7 Z( ~( ^( O: e3 _6 c9 l" ~; g+ `) {- U8 v7 J( i
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
$ A7 H% f3 W( D1 O8 u7 u9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {' f* S% h; C/ e' p4 |
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M$ U. \* R9 U5 u" y
+ D$ n) P# X# M& }* e' ]9 N2 R
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 6 A3 ?2 L& @. [, i
; {; b8 q5 G+ `. _1 w. I1 O( u
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
/ Y& ?! A) s8 F" _/ F# D
) _$ t( D/ z' l o当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
+ C" g2 f" d: j6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
6 S: O. o' A# ~; @通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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