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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 ; W* s; f- d# I+ E3 r( x% o
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. 8 |+ L# Y7 y6 i' X) w
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
5 A# _- s! C3 P以太坊基金集体亏损 ' `. j m$ S/ Z) _) o
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 , w5 \- C, O5 F7 o2 I
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 2 i+ b! m1 S0 r) d" C) C
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
& F' l- D2 }* k
2 l, j; E- B, f0 H' j' E6 {编辑切换为居中
$ n' Y! B, a6 X流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
0 p) i$ j1 V" d- D/ z) O2 |0 _- F这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
- J; E4 l9 z+ H: e以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 , P2 C4 H8 s+ }: x) ~# K$ n
. O6 U9 N) q3 G4 Q% T5 m$ p编辑切换为居中 , g; \. A7 ^' W8 Z
6月5日的TVL以太坊
7 ]4 b6 {' x$ M( ~0 o3 q/ a但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
4 D/ z0 s' L: C3 c# a宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 % g' f) T: C5 F% p2 X
男性讲述金融时报: , g, s" w/ U- R& S
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
6 F' g: S' g- |( f呆滞的技术面 , g. c C9 T5 I+ u, E
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
6 d& e& S! u- n A: y9 z7 H' \具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 , Q2 H* `9 p" C
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 2 A3 e) i, v+ j* @) W5 E ?% [
* M7 n1 j/ q) T- A5 a) u/ S# J编辑切换为居中 - P O: Q# F B+ j; z; ?# {
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
2 r/ v* ^: @3 N& S; W如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 ) q# Z6 f# v( T* E! Y' y
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
0 s& L5 ?& I0 q6 t' l7 ~CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. : A/ }6 j6 Z% }; R% j8 i2 |
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 9 J% @3 Y! \1 t; r% u e; B I" V
1 ^6 |4 S4 m/ F! J N& l$ H
编辑切换为居中
% z8 g; @5 A6 q0 A2 u以太坊外汇储备 3 @( M6 I" \/ C$ Y/ ~! x! z# ^4 o' t
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
. M! u* V- o, S+ C8 q$ i来源：金色财经 |
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