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[lastpost] => 2757728 比特币矿机要上太空了？无限太阳能+自带冷气的“挖矿天堂” 1755708155 天策-瑶娥
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3 u; f! M2 D8 t; M% V5 j" D7 {干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少？
, |. s' f2 W, R6 d. ?很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本，包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说？可能有几方面原因：一是从历史经验来看，BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是，如果BTC价格一直跌，跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本，那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc，这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系，我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。 T4 ^) e, I) R$ K6 M
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一、要确定电费成本，首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值，这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下，电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。
: s) n2 \8 L2 q) M5 T; |& f2 VBTC历史挖矿难度变动情况：' @2 e8 i2 M7 {" \4 Z% @
图片：不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图( q+ s, D! g4 f( a) T$ a9 D! Q- _
5 N) S+ I" e G8 A( a6 ^+ g0 \很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降，但是sorry，即使在2018年这么大熊市，挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。（难度按照年初首次统计，年中基本呈波动上升状态）: B# B5 q6 J, N5 s7 K* S* T
好了，那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度，测算下来，每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。
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; F$ V8 G# h t% S! o7 Q/ |0 I二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。
p g8 b. S' l2 H图片：不会贴图不会贴图不会贴图
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# f& Q, c) C Y; Z. n好了，很清楚了。第一档，家用电的小散，早就关机了。3 R; e2 t' O1 }5 x, w9 Z
第二档，普通水电、常规托管电费的，挖矿暂时没亏，但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。& u3 c% [8 A# Y7 u4 y! M& K; k8 S" _0 U
第三档，老少边穷的风电、火电等，如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态，因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc，需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc，而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。
+ Y5 q2 {% Y" |很多人还说有第4档，伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电，请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没，真的去的也是少数。呵呵。3 }' T1 {" s( s4 y
4 L$ a* i" }2 C( S( ?/ A; k9 P5 I三、那么又一个问题来了，大家都亏损或接近亏损，为啥还有人挖？原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的，比如极寒同学，他们在新疆的矿场，BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本？明白了没。
+ z' T6 R+ E+ l6 `( _当然，价格主要由供需决定，难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了，如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来，我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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