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[lastpost] => 2760904 比特币价格预测——短期交易者应该留意这个供应集群！（转） 1756619781 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，
`& y7 k4 _0 y- i: z& ]开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。
1 k( r9 k( t+ v3 H. u8 q, c# r比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来* |+ G$ ?9 C; c' A. G2 v
对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」
' }" Y( F$ e5 R: o7 _/ Y8 I+ O前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克
: r- ]& _, W: i# ?1 O; h指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。
' g! W# M4 U( j, Z时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。
5 L! T# _1 ]; |- U/ {1 U. g, g( K9 w历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将* ?. H7 ] T6 f& u
结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。7 B( J* K% ~# m8 D0 |$ g9 g6 `8 g
SEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动
7 I) W U! j2 E j+ c% _0 z% ~ I& G同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、
" C. ?' Y& e+ ? \: o: g贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。 o) u7 d/ ?3 ]- b0 I9 n E( P
但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推5 i0 W5 h3 ~7 Y0 h
迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，6 C& r4 n4 k" R" x" ?4 g
我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。7 ^$ U3 _* V) G& M' i) k
K33看好2024年加密货币市场8 j7 |7 E. k! U" b& o0 s! W! d
此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风
+ w+ k- w/ q( {+ e险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难
y- F" ~! F# C# A) B提前预测。
, H1 C% o; _2 ?3 l但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币
: K' J" ?; B) }现货ETF的走向如何。* [! g" f2 }; X- k1 T$ t3 R5 e
( J% b. I+ N. F
$ F& J# d- _& [- b; p: L# K$ z Z
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